• ADVISORY: TS Karl 5

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Wed Oct 12 16:49:00 2022
    289
    WTNT34 KNHC 121755
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Karl Special Advisory Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
    100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

    ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL STRENGTHENING...


    SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.0N 94.5W
    ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
    ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Tuxpan to Frontera

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
    progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
    required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
    located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.5 West. Karl is
    moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is
    expected to continue through today. A slow motion to the south and south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster
    generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning. On the
    forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within
    the watch area by Friday.

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support an
    increase to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
    in strength is forecast overnight followed by gradual weakening
    until landfall.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
    WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

    RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
    local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
    Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
    to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected
    across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
    terrain is possible.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
    coastline in the watch area starting Friday.

    SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
    coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
    Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi/Brown


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