WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2216 NORU (2216)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY NORU IS LOCATED AT 15N, 122.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT12. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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