• Pacific-EN: Kay 14

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Wed Sep 7 16:38:00 2022
    WTPZ22 KNHC 072033
    TCMEP2

    HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
    2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
    * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
    * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST OF BAJA AND THEN
    SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
    AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 07/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
    64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
    34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW.
    12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 360SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.0W AT 07/2100Z
    AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.8W

    FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 113.5W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
    34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.2N 115.5W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.8N 116.8W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
    34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 130NW.

    FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.3W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.2N 119.6W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 113.0W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/0000Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN



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