WTPZ32 KNHC 062044
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH AND NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 111.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto Cortes to Punta
Eugenia.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to
Punta Abreojos on the west coast and to Santa Rosalia on the east
coast.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Punta Eugenia to
San Jose De Las Palomas on the west coast and from Santa Rosalia to
Bahia De Los Angeles on the east coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles
* North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical
storm watches could be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 111.0 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the
west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). A weather station on Socorro Island recently reported a
wind gust of 50 mph (80 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning Wednesday morning and are
forecast to spread northward Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10
inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions
of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches possible across the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches possible across northwestern portions of mainland Mexico.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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