• MESO: Heavy Rain KANSAS

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sun Jun 5 18:34:00 2022
    AWUS01 KWNH 052154
    FFGMPD
    KSZ000-060100-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0298
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    553 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

    Areas affected...west-central KS

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 052151Z - 060100Z

    Summary...Training of heavy rain associated with a developing
    convective cluster over portions of northern KS is expected to
    produce localized flash flooding across portions of west-central
    KS. While the coverage of flash flooding appears as if it remain
    small in the near term, the potential for a quick 2-4 inches is
    high. Flash flood guidance across much of the highlighted area is
    only near 2 inches in 3 hours.

    Discussion...A small cluster of convection over Phillips and Rooks
    counties in northern KS has been responsible for heavy rain with a Wunderground.com report of 3 in/hr ending at 2045Z out of
    Stockton, KS. This cluster was located along a gradient in MLCAPE
    that extended from the central KS/NE border into south-central KS,
    with the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis showing 2000-3000 J/kg over western
    KS and less than 1500 J/kg over central/north-central KS. Forcing
    for ascent was being aided by the southern edge of a shortwave
    tracking across western NE and a diffluent region aloft, located
    at the leading edge of a zonally oriented 110 kt jet max centered
    over CA/NV.

    While models have struggled with the evolution of convection so
    far, given the healthy satellite presentation on infrared imagery
    and the presence of sufficient instability to sustain convection,
    it appears likely that the convective cluster will continue for at
    least another few hours. Evolution toward the south, along the
    gradient in MLCAPE, is possible over the next 2-4 hours with
    recent visible imagery showing attempts at sustaining updrafts south-southeastward toward the northern bow of the Arkansas River
    in central KS. Increasing solar insolation over western KS was
    also helping to erode lingering CIN from earlier in the day.
    Additional (localized) training appears likely in the short term
    but RAP forecasts of Corfidi vectors suggest south-southeastward
    propagation of thunderstorms as the convective complex/MCS begins
    to mature. Uncertainty with evolution has the MPD valid time set
    for 3 hours, at which point conditions will be re-evaluated.

    Otto

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 39919917 38739816 37749883 38030013 39340040


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