MESO: Heavy Rain KANSAS
From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sun Jun 5 18:34:00 2022
AWUS01 KWNH 052154
FFGMPD
KSZ000-060100-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0298
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
553 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Areas affected...west-central KS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 052151Z - 060100Z
Summary...Training of heavy rain associated with a developing
convective cluster over portions of northern KS is expected to
produce localized flash flooding across portions of west-central
KS. While the coverage of flash flooding appears as if it remain
small in the near term, the potential for a quick 2-4 inches is
high. Flash flood guidance across much of the highlighted area is
only near 2 inches in 3 hours.
Discussion...A small cluster of convection over Phillips and Rooks
counties in northern KS has been responsible for heavy rain with a Wunderground.com report of 3 in/hr ending at 2045Z out of
Stockton, KS. This cluster was located along a gradient in MLCAPE
that extended from the central KS/NE border into south-central KS,
with the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis showing 2000-3000 J/kg over western
KS and less than 1500 J/kg over central/north-central KS. Forcing
for ascent was being aided by the southern edge of a shortwave
tracking across western NE and a diffluent region aloft, located
at the leading edge of a zonally oriented 110 kt jet max centered
over CA/NV.
While models have struggled with the evolution of convection so
far, given the healthy satellite presentation on infrared imagery
and the presence of sufficient instability to sustain convection,
it appears likely that the convective cluster will continue for at
least another few hours. Evolution toward the south, along the
gradient in MLCAPE, is possible over the next 2-4 hours with
recent visible imagery showing attempts at sustaining updrafts south-southeastward toward the northern bow of the Arkansas River
in central KS. Increasing solar insolation over western KS was
also helping to erode lingering CIN from earlier in the day.
Additional (localized) training appears likely in the short term
but RAP forecasts of Corfidi vectors suggest south-southeastward
propagation of thunderstorms as the convective complex/MCS begins
to mature. Uncertainty with evolution has the MPD valid time set
for 3 hours, at which point conditions will be re-evaluated.
Otto
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 39919917 38739816 37749883 38030013 39340040
= = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)