• Pacific-EN: Agatha 11A

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Mon May 30 15:37:00 2022
    WTPZ31 KNHC 301739
    TCPEP1

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
    100 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

    ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA...
    ...CORE OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

    SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.4N 96.9W
    ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
    * Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
    progress of Agatha.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
    near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 96.9 West. Agatha is moving
    toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is
    expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
    center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico,
    during the next few hours.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Agatha
    reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is forecast after
    landfall, and Agatha is expected to dissipate over southeastern
    Mexico by late Tuesday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
    miles (150 km). An observation in Puerto Angel recently reported a
    wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).

    The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
    Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
    area and possible in the watch area through this evening. Tropical
    storm conditions are occurring along the coast of Oaxaca and will
    spread eastward within the warning area through tonight.

    STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
    coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
    where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the
    surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

    RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
    Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
    currently expected:

    Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
    amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
    mudslides may occur.

    Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
    amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
    mudslides may occur.

    Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
    Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
    possible.

    SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
    southern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are
    likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi


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