Indian-S: TS Jasmine 10
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All on Sun Apr 24 09:24:00 2022
WTIO30 FMEE 241253
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/12/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JASMINE)
2.A POSITION 2022/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 39.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/25 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 65
24H: 2022/04/25 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 85
36H: 2022/04/26 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 85
48H: 2022/04/26 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
60H: 2022/04/27 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2022/04/27 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/28 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
120H: 2022/04/29 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM JASMINE CONTINUED TO BE ORGANIZED MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WESTERLY SHEAR THAT EXPOSES THE CENTER,
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
MOREOVER, A WIND MEASUREMENT AT 0250Z GIVES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
35/40KT. JASMINE CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 45KT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVER
EASTERN MADAGASCAR AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA IS DIRECTING JASMINE'S DIRECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE
IS SLOWLY TURNING WESTWARD TILTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. THEN PASSING BEHIND THE TROUGH, JASMINE STARTS A TURN TO THE
EAST AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THEN WITH A NEW RIDGE
SWELLING OVER AFRICA, THE TRAJECTORY IS MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS QUITE STRONG ON
THE TRAJECTORY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS WITH AN IFS ENSEMBLE THAT MAKES
THE SYSTEM GO UP IN THE CHANNEL WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE DIRECTS IT
MORE OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CMRS TRACK FAVORS A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE EUROPEAN CENTER. IT IS HOWEVER FURTHER EAST THAN THE LAST
PREVISION.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, JASMINE IS BENEFITING FROM OVERALL GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE TENDS TO DISAPPEAR TOMORROW. JASMINE'S INTENSITY STARTS TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TOMORROW. FROM TUESDAY, THE INCREASE OF THE
WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE A
PROGRESSIVE DISSIPATION EXPECTED AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM AT SEA, THE WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS (BASSAS DA INDIA AND EUROPA) SHOULD
START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA
DURING THE NIGHT OF MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
- GUSTS OF 80 TO 90KM/H, LOCALLY 100KM/H ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 12 HOURS ARE EXPECTED.
- SEA CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE
SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL (BASSAS DA INDIA AND EUROPA) FOLLOWING THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. WAVES OF 3 TO 4 METERS ON
AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED.
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