ACUS11 KWNS 052007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052007
FLZ000-GAZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of the northern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052007Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm may develop across
portions of northern Florida. If a storm manages to mature and
become sustained, then damaging gusts, large hail, or a brief
tornado may occur. The severe threat is conditional and storm
coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Agitated CU continue to build in a broad confluence
zone across the northern Florida Peninsula, driven mainly by strong
diurnal heating. Surface temperatures are approaching 90F amid mid
to upper 60s F dewpoints, contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
Modestly curved hodographs evident (via the JAX VAD profile) are
contributing to both 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and around 100
m2/s2 effective SRH. While MRMS mosaic and KJAX radar data show
attempts at convective initiation, stronger deep-layer ascent is
expected to remain farther north, with multiple runs of the HRRR
also showing sparse storm coverage. As such, storm initiation and
coverage is in question. Should a storm mature, the isolated,
discrete storm mode and modest low-level curvature may support a
supercell structure, with all hazards possible. Given the
conditional and sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
not expected.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON 28978178 29238209 29788219 30488218 30838193 30728160
30158136 29638116 29338106 28958103 28978178

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