• MESO: Severe Potential TX

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Tue Apr 5 16:34:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 051937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051937
    TXZ000-052200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0413
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

    Areas affected...portions of far southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 051937Z - 052200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may develop with the stronger
    storm cores, and a couple of severe hailstones are also possible.
    Severe coverage is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A modest mid-level trough is impinging on south Texas,
    with upper support and upslope flow/strong surface heating
    contributing to convective initiation along the lee of the Sierra
    del Carmen mountain range. These storms are developing in and are
    expected to progress through a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface
    temperatures are exceeding 90F, with surface dewpoints in the 60s
    leading to 25+ temperature/dewpoint depressions and LCLs/LFCs well
    over 2000 m AGL. Given 8-9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, and nearly
    straight hodographs amid weak tropospheric flow, high-based
    single-cell and multicellular storms are expected. Efficient
    evaporative cooling may support a couple of strong wind gusts. An
    instance or two of large hail may accompany any updrafts that are
    not overwhelmed with dry-air entrainment. Given the isolated nature
    of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28560054 28910042 29219985 29619872 29619814 29299746
    28929717 28489719 28029750 27679792 27459846 27399927
    27499971 28560054

    $$
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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Tue Apr 12 16:11:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 122007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122007
    TXZ000-122200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0458
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0307 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of central Texas.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 122007Z - 122200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase into the
    evening hours across parts of central Texas.

    DISCUSSION...One supercell and several additional cells have
    developed along and near the dryline in west-central Texas this
    afternoon. Storms organization has been slow, likely due to the
    convoluted wind profile in the wake of the passing upper-level
    trough. However, deep layer flow is expected to improve into this
    evening with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear forecast across the
    warm sector by 23Z. Additionally, current storm activity is in a
    well-mixed airmass with 30+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads and
    veered surface flow. As these storms move east, they will encounter
    a less mixed airmass with backed surface flow and dewpoints in the
    upper 60s. These south-southeasterly surface winds combined with
    strengthening lower tropospheric flow, will likely result in a
    low-level wind profile favorable for tornadoes. Therefore, a tornado
    watch will likely be needed east of watch 110 late this afternoon
    into the early evening hours.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/12/2022

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 32979753 33019620 32569561 31999551 31309563 30379631
    29529730 29179827 29279845 29939852 30109850 30689833
    30789823 31279801 31839762 32979753
    $$
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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Tue May 10 16:32:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 101951
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101950
    TXZ000-NMZ000-102215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0709
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

    Areas affected...parts of southwest Texas into the South
    Plains...extreme eastern New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 101950Z - 102215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form by around 21Z over southwest
    Texas, with increasing coverage through the evening across the
    Panhandle, South Plains, and eventually southwest Oklahoma and
    northwest Texas. Damaging hail and wind will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...GPS precipitable water sensors show increasing values
    across the region, where strong heating is also resulting in mixing
    of the boundary layer. Value have doubled to around 1.00" over the
    South Plains, and visible imagery shows an expanding CU field
    coincident with the moisture surge. Dewpoints into the 60s F are
    contributing to strong MLCAPE, with 4000 J/kg south of a Vernon to
    Midland line.

    Convergence within the boundary layer is very weak, with difluent
    winds in some areas currently. However, continued heating and influx
    of moisture westward should result in scattered storms in the
    uncapped air mass after about 22 or 23Z. Lack of shear should result
    in clusters of storms producing substantial outflow, eventually
    propagating into southwest OK into northwest TX through about 06Z.
    Large hail will also be likely initially given extreme instability,
    but the primary threat should transition to wind as storms merge.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/10/2022

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29300401 30450410 32730353 34170227 34670141 34740088
    34700031 34570011 34149992 33599999 33480006 32710051
    31580105 30500146 29730183 29780223 29840231 29720234
    29690267 29230278 28900310 28910332 29090357 29190387
    29300401

    $$
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  • From Mike Powell@454:1/105 to All on Mon Mar 27 14:26:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 271902
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271902
    TXZ000-272100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0376
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 271902Z - 272100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may intensify enough
    to pose a hail threat this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms along
    the Rio Grande are possible late afternoon/evening and may also pose
    a severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms developing over the Edwards
    Plateau within a modest regime of low-level warm air/moisture return
    have quickly intensified over the past hour. Small hail has been
    reported with one supercell southwest of the San Angelo area, and
    recent MRMS hail parameters suggest at least sporadic severe hail is
    possible with the developing cells. Despite relatively cool/dry
    conditions at the surface and modest buoyancy profiles, strong flow
    over the region (as sampled by recent KSJT VWP observations) is
    supporting elongated, nearly straight hodographs within the
    effective layer. This will continue to support the potential for
    splitting supercells through the afternoon amid persistent lift and
    limited most-unstable inhibition. The limited buoyancy (around 500
    J/kg MUCAPE within the region of greatest ascent based off visible
    satellite trends) limits confidence in the longevity and spatial
    extent of the threat, though a few instances of severe hail appear
    possible through the late afternoon.

    Further south along the Rio Grande, better low-level moisture will
    support surface-based parcels with MLCAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg.
    Visible imagery shows a cluster of deepening cumulus along the
    Sierra del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico. Thunderstorms
    developing out of this cluster may intensify if they can be
    sustained long enough to reach the higher-quality moisture across
    the international border. While this scenario is somewhat
    conditional, a severe hail/wind risk may materialize this later this
    afternoon.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 03/27/2023

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30419944 29999992 29480017 29050022 28800043 28740070
    29100096 29440133 29630171 29700201 30080212 30490208
    30920196 31300183 31750118 32150011 32229968 32119919
    31859874 31509840 31129833 30769868 30419944


    = = =
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  • From Mike Powell@454:1/105 to All on Thu May 4 15:40:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041948
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041948
    TXZ000-042215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0674
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0248 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023

    Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas to the middle Rio
    Grande Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 041948Z - 042215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms producing large hail will
    be possible from late this afternoon into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field near a dryline
    extending from northwest TX southwestward toward the Rio Grande.
    Winds have veered to west/southwest behind the dryline, with
    temperatures currently into the mid 80s F. East of the dryline,
    cirrus has generally thinned, with areas of heating in the moist air
    mass. A moisture gradient does exist from central into southwest
    TX, and is not expected to move much in the near term.

    Continued heating as well as deepening of the moist boundary layer
    ahead of the dryline may yield several storms by late afternoon,
    perhaps aided by a weak midlevel feature moving across southwestern
    TX. Little else will be present to support a more organized severe
    threat, but trends will be monitored for signs of increasing severe
    storm coverage through early evening. Modest instability and
    favorably long hodographs should favor mainly hail.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/04/2023

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29690251 30640192 31520135 32160107 32710093 32910055
    32959967 32399919 31679921 30779949 29760017 29140079
    29470120 29700143 29780223 29690251


    = = =
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  • From Mike Powell@454:1/105 to All on Fri May 5 15:16:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 051943
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051942
    TXZ000-052145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0681
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0242 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023

    Areas affected...central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 051942Z - 052145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few
    hours across central Texas, with a threat of severe hail and a few
    severe gusts.

    DISCUSSION...A CU field continues to expand over parts of the
    Edwards Plateau, with additional towering CU extending
    east/northeast toward Denton. Strong heating over the elevated
    terrain has led to an uncapped air mass, with modest destabilization
    currently as dewpoints have mixed. Coincidentally, all of this
    convection happens to be colocated with the 850 mb theta-e ridge.

    With time, and despite only weak convergence, a few storms will
    likely emerge out of the coalescing CU field, with a threat of
    locally damaging hail or severe gusts. Mid to high level winds are
    not particularly strong, suggesting multicell storm mode with
    sporadic strong cores and updrafts propagating in various
    directions, with downdrafts aided by the well-mixed boundary layer.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/05/2023


    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31230013 31860022 32749991 32979957 33179740 32979720
    32569686 31949687 31299703 30699725 30389760 30489900
    30739971 31230013


    = = =
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