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MESO: Severe Potential TX
From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Tue Apr 5 16:34:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 051937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051937
TXZ000-052200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Areas affected...portions of far southern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051937Z - 052200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may develop with the stronger
storm cores, and a couple of severe hailstones are also possible.
Severe coverage is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A modest mid-level trough is impinging on south Texas,
with upper support and upslope flow/strong surface heating
contributing to convective initiation along the lee of the Sierra
del Carmen mountain range. These storms are developing in and are
expected to progress through a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface
temperatures are exceeding 90F, with surface dewpoints in the 60s
leading to 25+ temperature/dewpoint depressions and LCLs/LFCs well
over 2000 m AGL. Given 8-9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, and nearly
straight hodographs amid weak tropospheric flow, high-based
single-cell and multicellular storms are expected. Efficient
evaporative cooling may support a couple of strong wind gusts. An
instance or two of large hail may accompany any updrafts that are
not overwhelmed with dry-air entrainment. Given the isolated nature
of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/05/2022
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28560054 28910042 29219985 29619872 29619814 29299746
28929717 28489719 28029750 27679792 27459846 27399927
27499971 28560054
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Tue Apr 12 16:11:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 122007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122007
TXZ000-122200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Areas affected...Portions of central Texas.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 122007Z - 122200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase into the
evening hours across parts of central Texas.
DISCUSSION...One supercell and several additional cells have
developed along and near the dryline in west-central Texas this
afternoon. Storms organization has been slow, likely due to the
convoluted wind profile in the wake of the passing upper-level
trough. However, deep layer flow is expected to improve into this
evening with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear forecast across the
warm sector by 23Z. Additionally, current storm activity is in a
well-mixed airmass with 30+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads and
veered surface flow. As these storms move east, they will encounter
a less mixed airmass with backed surface flow and dewpoints in the
upper 60s. These south-southeasterly surface winds combined with
strengthening lower tropospheric flow, will likely result in a
low-level wind profile favorable for tornadoes. Therefore, a tornado
watch will likely be needed east of watch 110 late this afternoon
into the early evening hours.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/12/2022
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 32979753 33019620 32569561 31999551 31309563 30379631
29529730 29179827 29279845 29939852 30109850 30689833
30789823 31279801 31839762 32979753
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Tue May 10 16:32:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 101951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101950
TXZ000-NMZ000-102215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Areas affected...parts of southwest Texas into the South
Plains...extreme eastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101950Z - 102215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form by around 21Z over southwest
Texas, with increasing coverage through the evening across the
Panhandle, South Plains, and eventually southwest Oklahoma and
northwest Texas. Damaging hail and wind will be possible.
DISCUSSION...GPS precipitable water sensors show increasing values
across the region, where strong heating is also resulting in mixing
of the boundary layer. Value have doubled to around 1.00" over the
South Plains, and visible imagery shows an expanding CU field
coincident with the moisture surge. Dewpoints into the 60s F are
contributing to strong MLCAPE, with 4000 J/kg south of a Vernon to
Midland line.
Convergence within the boundary layer is very weak, with difluent
winds in some areas currently. However, continued heating and influx
of moisture westward should result in scattered storms in the
uncapped air mass after about 22 or 23Z. Lack of shear should result
in clusters of storms producing substantial outflow, eventually
propagating into southwest OK into northwest TX through about 06Z.
Large hail will also be likely initially given extreme instability,
but the primary threat should transition to wind as storms merge.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/10/2022
ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29300401 30450410 32730353 34170227 34670141 34740088
34700031 34570011 34149992 33599999 33480006 32710051
31580105 30500146 29730183 29780223 29840231 29720234
29690267 29230278 28900310 28910332 29090357 29190387
29300401
$$
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From
Mike Powell@454:1/105 to
All on Mon Mar 27 14:26:00 2023
ACUS11 KWNS 271902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271902
TXZ000-272100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
Areas affected...Southern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271902Z - 272100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may intensify enough
to pose a hail threat this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms along
the Rio Grande are possible late afternoon/evening and may also pose
a severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms developing over the Edwards
Plateau within a modest regime of low-level warm air/moisture return
have quickly intensified over the past hour. Small hail has been
reported with one supercell southwest of the San Angelo area, and
recent MRMS hail parameters suggest at least sporadic severe hail is
possible with the developing cells. Despite relatively cool/dry
conditions at the surface and modest buoyancy profiles, strong flow
over the region (as sampled by recent KSJT VWP observations) is
supporting elongated, nearly straight hodographs within the
effective layer. This will continue to support the potential for
splitting supercells through the afternoon amid persistent lift and
limited most-unstable inhibition. The limited buoyancy (around 500
J/kg MUCAPE within the region of greatest ascent based off visible
satellite trends) limits confidence in the longevity and spatial
extent of the threat, though a few instances of severe hail appear
possible through the late afternoon.
Further south along the Rio Grande, better low-level moisture will
support surface-based parcels with MLCAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Visible imagery shows a cluster of deepening cumulus along the
Sierra del Carmen mountains in northern Mexico. Thunderstorms
developing out of this cluster may intensify if they can be
sustained long enough to reach the higher-quality moisture across
the international border. While this scenario is somewhat
conditional, a severe hail/wind risk may materialize this later this
afternoon.
..Moore/Guyer.. 03/27/2023
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30419944 29999992 29480017 29050022 28800043 28740070
29100096 29440133 29630171 29700201 30080212 30490208
30920196 31300183 31750118 32150011 32229968 32119919
31859874 31509840 31129833 30769868 30419944
= = =
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From
Mike Powell@454:1/105 to
All on Thu May 4 15:40:00 2023
ACUS11 KWNS 041948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041948
TXZ000-042215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023
Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas to the middle Rio
Grande Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 041948Z - 042215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms producing large hail will
be possible from late this afternoon into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field near a dryline
extending from northwest TX southwestward toward the Rio Grande.
Winds have veered to west/southwest behind the dryline, with
temperatures currently into the mid 80s F. East of the dryline,
cirrus has generally thinned, with areas of heating in the moist air
mass. A moisture gradient does exist from central into southwest
TX, and is not expected to move much in the near term.
Continued heating as well as deepening of the moist boundary layer
ahead of the dryline may yield several storms by late afternoon,
perhaps aided by a weak midlevel feature moving across southwestern
TX. Little else will be present to support a more organized severe
threat, but trends will be monitored for signs of increasing severe
storm coverage through early evening. Modest instability and
favorably long hodographs should favor mainly hail.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/04/2023
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29690251 30640192 31520135 32160107 32710093 32910055
32959967 32399919 31679921 30779949 29760017 29140079
29470120 29700143 29780223 29690251
= = =
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From
Mike Powell@454:1/105 to
All on Fri May 5 15:16:00 2023
ACUS11 KWNS 051943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051942
TXZ000-052145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023
Areas affected...central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 051942Z - 052145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few
hours across central Texas, with a threat of severe hail and a few
severe gusts.
DISCUSSION...A CU field continues to expand over parts of the
Edwards Plateau, with additional towering CU extending
east/northeast toward Denton. Strong heating over the elevated
terrain has led to an uncapped air mass, with modest destabilization
currently as dewpoints have mixed. Coincidentally, all of this
convection happens to be colocated with the 850 mb theta-e ridge.
With time, and despite only weak convergence, a few storms will
likely emerge out of the coalescing CU field, with a threat of
locally damaging hail or severe gusts. Mid to high level winds are
not particularly strong, suggesting multicell storm mode with
sporadic strong cores and updrafts propagating in various
directions, with downdrafts aided by the well-mixed boundary layer.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/05/2023
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31230013 31860022 32749991 32979957 33179740 32979720
32569686 31949687 31299703 30699725 30389760 30489900
30739971 31230013
= = =
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