• MESO: Severe potential GP

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Tue Mar 29 17:05:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 292010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292010
    KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-292215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0338
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

    Areas affected...portions of northwest and north-central OK into
    central KS and far southeast NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 292010Z - 292215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across central
    Kansas and perhaps northwest or north-central OK by 23z. A watch
    will likely be needed for parts of this area in the next couple of
    hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main hazards expected
    with this activity, though a tornado or two also is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus continues to increase this afternoon behind the
    surface dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles/western OK into southwest
    KS, indicative of increasing ascent spreading eastward into the
    Plains. A surface low is positioned near Harlan County NE near the
    KS/NE border. A dryline extends south/southwest from the low across
    central KS into western OK. Strong capping is still evident east of
    the dryline in latest mesoanalysis data and in cloud presentation in
    visible satellite. 18z RAOB from OUN also continues to show a stout
    capping inversion around 850-700 mb. However, very steep midlevel
    lapse rates near 9 C/km were noted. Additionally, a modest but
    favorably curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated above 3km
    was also present.

    Southerly low-level flow will continue a warm advection regime ahead
    of the dryline and a broad area of 56-60 F surface dewpoints are in
    place across central/northern OK into south-central/southeast KS
    (diminishing with northward extent). As stronger ascent spreads
    eastward over the next few hours, high-based convection is expected
    to develop near the dryline from northwest OK into central KS.
    Convective coverage will likely increase more quickly across KS as
    the dryline is overtaken by a southeastward-surging cold front over
    western KS as of 1930z, before increasing later this evening further
    south across OK. Initial semi-discrete supercells are possible and
    may produce large hail and damaging gusts. Convection is expected to
    grow upscale rather quickly as the low-level jet strengthens this
    evening, bringing an attendant increase in damaging wind potential
    with eastward extent. While modest boundary-layer moisture will
    result in higher-based convection, low-level shear does support
    rotation and a tornado or two may be possible as well. A watch will
    likely be needed for portions of the MCD area by around 22z.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/29/2022


    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 36009789 36019838 36079871 36209886 36339895 36599900
    37509872 38749827 40009773 40089765 40259743 40369705
    40369673 40259618 40099588 39849562 39389551 38989555
    38379571 37499622 36659682 36209747 36009789
    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)