• Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tro

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sun Feb 6 09:16:00 2022
    WTIO30 FMEE 051752
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/2/20212022
    1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

    2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
    (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
    34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
    48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
    64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
    DEPRESSION

    24H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION

    36H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM

    48H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM

    60H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM

    72H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
    TROPICAL STORM

    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    96H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
    POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

    120H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
    POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    T=5.0+ CI=5.5

    DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED
    LITTLE, WITH STILL VERY COLD TOPS SURROUNDING AN EYE REMAINING WELL
    DEFINED IN VIS/IR IMAGERY. SSMIS IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE MAXIMUM WIND
    RADIUS. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
    OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (A BIT HIGHER), THE SMAP PASS AROUND 00Z THIS
    MORNING AT 94 KT AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

    BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
    MADAGASCAR COAST AT A FASTER SPEED. THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR IS IN
    PROGRESS WITH THE EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENTERED ON THE COAST NEAR THE
    NORTH OF MANANJARY.
    ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
    THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE
    SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE
    WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
    THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

    THE INTENSITY THUS REMAINED MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED BEFORE THE
    LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
    FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
    LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
    THE FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
    TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
    NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
    THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
    LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
    THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

    EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
    BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
    MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL GOING ON BETWEEN NOSY VARIKA AND
    MANANJARY. EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE
    LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. WAVES RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE
    EXPECTED TO REACH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN
    1 METER IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
    COASTAL FLOODING IN THE MANANJARY AREA AND SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
    THE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF
    THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN
    HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF 300/500 MM ON THE
    HIGHLANDS LOCATED NEAR THE IMPACT POINT. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED
    ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
    LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
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