Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tro
From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sun Feb 6 09:16:00 2022
WTIO30 FMEE 051752
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)
2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE, WITH STILL VERY COLD TOPS SURROUNDING AN EYE REMAINING WELL
DEFINED IN VIS/IR IMAGERY. SSMIS IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE MAXIMUM WIND
RADIUS. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (A BIT HIGHER), THE SMAP PASS AROUND 00Z THIS
MORNING AT 94 KT AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
MADAGASCAR COAST AT A FASTER SPEED. THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR IS IN
PROGRESS WITH THE EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENTERED ON THE COAST NEAR THE
NORTH OF MANANJARY.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.
THE INTENSITY THUS REMAINED MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED BEFORE THE
LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL GOING ON BETWEEN NOSY VARIKA AND
MANANJARY. EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE
LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. WAVES RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN
1 METER IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE MANANJARY AREA AND SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
THE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF
THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF 300/500 MM ON THE
HIGHLANDS LOCATED NEAR THE IMPACT POINT. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED
ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
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* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)