ACUS11 KWNS 151938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151937
ARZ000-MOZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 151937Z - 160130Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour will be
possible across parts of the Ozarks into this evening. Some mixed
precipitation will be possible farther east before transitioning to
all snow this evening. Periods of heavy snow may reduce visibility
and result in quick accumulation.

DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional observations showed a large
precipitation shield wrapping around a surface low across the lower
Mississippi River Valley. Associated with a well-defined upper low
over Texoma, large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level warm
advection should continue to support widespread precipitation across
parts of the Ozarks through the next several hours.

Periodic heavy snow has already been observed across the
northwestern portions of the precip band in southwestern MO and
northwestern AR. Surface observations indicate low-level cold air
advection is increasing as the low strengthens and moves off to the
east. Regional model soundings show some potential for sleet and
mixed precipitation types across portions of north-central AR and
southern MO as low-level warm air is slowly eroded from the
northwest. Aided by increased dynamic cooling from an observed
deformation band moving in from the northeast, moderate to heavy
snow should gradually expand in coverage to the east over the few
hours. Occasional snow rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour, peaking
between 21-01z, will be possible before weakening ascent and dry air entrainment lower snowfall rates. The greatest confidence in heavy
snow will be along the north facing slopes of the higher terrain
across north-central AR extending into southern MO. Some heavy snow
may also develop later this evening across portions of northeastern
AR and the MO Bootheel, but warmer surface temperatures and a slower
transition to wintry precipitation will likely limit overall
accumulations.

..Lyons/Grams.. 01/15/2022

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36739115 36569074 36469061 36299060 36149089 35949144
35819196 35599251 35519294 35519322 35639339 35859352
36279348 36599336 36779290 36849240 36799157 36739115
$$
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