WTPN21 PHNC 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 91.8W TO 11.5N 99.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 92.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
9.5N 92.3W, APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ,
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 081933Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN
OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91E WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092300Z.//
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