-
MESO: Severe Potential
From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Wed Jun 2 15:35:00 2021
ACUS11 KWNS 021828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021828
TXZ000-022030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021828Z - 022030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the next couple of hours across western/central Texas.
Hail and strong wind gusts may accompany this activity into the
early evening.
DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from morning convection extends
from near BPG to SJT to BBD early this afternoon. Strong heating in
the vicinity of the boundary amid upper 50s to low 60s surface
dewpoints is aiding in strong destabilization, with 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE noted in 18z mesoanalysis data. A couple of initial
thunderstorms have developed along/just north of the boundary within
the past hour or two before weakening. Additional, more robust
development, has been noted recently over northern Sterling County
with additional deepening CU noted further northwest to the north of
Midland. While large-scale forcing will remain somewhat modest,
additional diurnal development is expected in the vicinity of the
surface boundary given weak low level convergence and strong
instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient shear should
allow for a couple of organized cells capable of hail and strong
gusts. Timing and convective coverage still remains somewhat
uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
over the next few hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 06/02/2021
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32850192 32000051 31689966 31469927 31179910 30829922
30629954 30490014 30600067 30780116 31500215 31990269
32360289 32760275 32940235 32850192
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Tue Jun 22 17:42:00 2021
ACUS11 KWNS 222042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222041
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-222245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021
Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska and western Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222041Z - 222245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms capable of mainly
large hail and damaging winds possible this evening.
DISCUSSION...Mid-level showers and occasional thunderstorms have
been present across western Iowa for much of the day thus far. This
activity is likely a manifestation of the mid-level moisture and
steep lapse rates in a region of isentropic ascent. Therefore,
if/when the MLCIN can erode across this region, surface based storm
development is anticipated.
A well developed cu field has been advancing eastward across
Nebraska over the last few hours with its eastward extent closely
following the -25 J/kg MLCIN contour from SPC mesoanalysis. Linear extrapolation and forecast MLCIN from the RAP would suggest this cu
field may advance to near the NE/IA border between 21 and 22Z. This
will be the most likely time for surface based storm development as
a minimally capped low-level environment spreads beneath the plume
of better mid-level moisture and isentropic ascent. The window of
opportunity for storm based storm development is narrow, but the
timing appears favorable and the HRRR also supports the idea of
storms developing around 21Z in the region of Sioux City, IA.
Any stronger storms which develop will likely be supercellular in
nature given 50 to 55 kts of effective shear per OAX VWP. These
storms will pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Any
storms which develop are only expected to last a few hours before
boundary layer cooling and subsequent increasing inhibition will
likely bring and end to strong storms. While storm intensity is
expected to be sufficient for a severe thunderstorm watch, storm
coverage and longevity may be too limited.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/22/2021
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41229655 41789765 42329784 42789764 43019625 42429347
41619263 41059274 40679348 40639438 40599545 41229655
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Thu Aug 26 14:51:00 2021
ACUS11 KWNS 261813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261812
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-261945-
Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Areas affected...Extreme southeast MN/northeast IA...Southwest WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261812Z - 261945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging wind threat is possible this
afternoon ahead of a convective line. Watch issuance is currently
considered unlikely.
DISCUSSION...At 18Z, a line of thunderstorms is gradually
intensifying across northeast IA into southeast MN, along a remnant
outflow from the decaying MCS across central IA. While substantial
cloud cover is noted downstream into southwest WI, some modest heating/destabilization has occurred, especially near and south of a
surface boundary draped from southern WI into southwest MN.
Continued modest destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse
rates may allow for an increasing damaging wind potential with this
line as it moves northeastward. Relatively modest deep-layer
flow/shear (as noted in KARX VWP) should keep organization
relatively limited, so watch issuance is currently considered
unlikely.
..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021
ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 43859258 44309147 44349064 43999015 43658999 43199019
43059063 42979113 42959185 43199211 43419235 43859258
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Wed Dec 29 15:53:00 2021
ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292036
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292300-
Mesoscale Discussion 2075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021
Areas affected...portions of Middle TN...northern AL and northwest
GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 292036Z - 292300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase from late
afternoon into this evening. Timing of watch issuance remains
uncertain, but may be needed within the next 2-3 hours.
DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery slowly continues this afternoon across
parts of northern AL in the wake of morning/early afternoon showers.
A surface boundary related to this earlier precipitation extends
west to east from roughly Haleyville AL into far northwest GA. Some
additional destabilization is expected with northward extent across
the MCD area in a sustained warm advection regime through the
evening hours. However, latest hi-res guidance continues to indicate
some uncertainty with regards to the northward extent of severe
potential, as well as in timing of the severe threat. Most guidance,
along with observational trends, preclude discrete warm sector
development in deference to an eastward-advancing, and currently
developing, bow/QLCS in the vicinity of the Mississippi
River/western TN/northwest MS as of 2030z/230pm CST. The best
estimate of severe storms moving into the MCD area is between
22-00z.
Once storms do emerge over the region, a strong low-level jet and
bowing segments will favor damaging gusts, with a few mesovortex
tornadoes possible as well. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored as a watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area in the next 2-3 hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 12/29/2021
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33818564 33508679 33418766 33538812 33708824 34248826
35018822 35338794 35498757 35548706 35448624 35328552
35138516 34848500 34538496 34348502 34198514 33888544
33818564
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Mon Mar 7 16:24:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 072054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072053
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-072300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022
Areas affected...Western and central Pennsylvania...southwest New
York...and western Maryland
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072053Z - 072300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A shallow squall line will continue to rapidly progress
eastward across Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of New York, far
northern West Virginia, and western Maryland over the next several
hours. Although it is uncertainty if/when this line will intensify,
strong winds may cause sporadic wind damage.
DISCUSSION...A narrow band of shallow, but strongly forced,
convection has been ongoing across eastern OH into western PA for
the past couple of hours. This line is primarily being driven by a
strong surface cold front and is progressing rapidly eastward at
around 40 mph. Several wind gusts between 35-45 mph have been noted
across eastern OH and far western PA with the passage of this line,
and recent velocity data from KPBZ shows winds up to 60 mph between
500-1000 feet off the surface.
Although the propensity for severe/damaging winds from this line has
been low so far, the downstream air mass across central PA is
gradually becoming more conditionally favorable for deeper
convection as mid-50s F dewpoints overspread the region. Latest
RAP/HRRR forecast soundings hint that MLCAPE values up to 250-500
J/kg are possible by late afternoon if surface temperatures can warm
into the low to mid 60s. While this is possible, the ongoing cloud
cover and precipitation cast considerable uncertainty into the
degree of destabilization. A watch is not anticipated at this time,
but trends will be monitored over the coming hours for deepening
convection, warming surface temperatures, and/or surface wind
observations.
..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2022
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 40858060 41657993 42127926 42327823 42097703 41527644
40687640 39807687 39487753 39337822 39217920 39518019
39738063 39958096 40858060
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Fri Apr 22 19:30:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 222236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222235
KSZ000-COZ000-230030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Areas affected...Far Southeast Colorado...Western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 222235Z - 230030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next hour
across far southeast Colorado into western Kansas. Large hail, wind
damage and an isolated tornado threat will likely accompany the
stronger thunderstorms. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low over northern
Colorado with a dryline from near Goodland extending southward to
near Dalhart. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in
the mid to upper 50s F. The RAP has MLCAPE to the east of the
dryline in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms have developed
just to the east of the dryline in the northwestern Texas Panhandle
and western Oklahoma Panhandle. This convection is expected to
continue expanding in coverage, moving north-northeastward into
southwest Kansas over the next hour. In addition to moderate
instability, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
40 knot range. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.0 C/km will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the more intense supercells.
The dryline is forecast to retreat early this evening as surface
winds back to the south-southeast. As a result, a severe threat
could impact far southeastern Colorado as well. Weather watch
issuance will likely be needed for parts of far southeast Colorado
and western Kansas needed soon.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/22/2022
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39980033 39600003 38730041 37730095 37180136 37110215
37260240 37510241 37850238 38900203 39620168 39990107
39980033
$$
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sat May 21 14:31:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 211817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211816
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-212045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Areas affected...Portions of northern/central OH into northwestern
PA and western NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 211816Z - 212045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon, with both damaging winds and hail
possible. Watch issuance will probably be needed.
DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have recently begun to
increase in coverage across parts of western/central OH to the south
of a front. Additional convection will probably form this afternoon
into northern OH, northwestern PA, and western/central NY along and
south of a lake breeze. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates and
robust diurnal heating are supporting moderate to strong
instability, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 1500-3000 J/kg. Even
though stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough will
likely remain displaced to the west of this region, deep-layer shear
should still be adequate for some updraft organization, with
multicells possible. Damaging winds will probably be the main threat
with any robust convection that can develop, but some hail may also
occur given the steep mid-level lapse rates present. Trends will be
monitored for increasing thunderstorm coverage, which will probably
warrant Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance across some part of this
region in the next couple of hours.
..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 41098375 41558171 42507930 42977800 43367657 43207612
42787615 42397684 40968051 40158226 39328388 41098375
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sat May 21 14:33:00 2022
It is hailing here right now! :)
ACUS11 KWNS 211700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211700
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-211900-
Mesoscale Discussion 0851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL into IN...western
OH...and far northern KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 211700Z - 211900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Continuing to monitor a line of thunderstorms moving
across Illinois for signs of increasing intensity and damaging wind
potential. Watch issuance appears increasingly likely in the next
couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is present over parts of southern/central IL at 17Z. This line has remained sub-severe so
far, with wind gusts generally in the 35-45 kt range. Still, the
airmass downstream into IN and northern KY continues to destabilize
along and south of a front. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg has become
common as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s. Recent
high-resolution guidance suggests that this ongoing cluster will
intensify over the next couple of hours as it moves eastward across
IN, northern KY, and eventually parts of western OH. Gradually
strengthening southwesterly flow through mid levels is noted on
recent VWPs from KVWX/KIND, which should aid in thunderstorm
organization. Current expectations are for the cluster to pose a
gradually increasing threat for scattered damaging winds as it
encounters a more unstable airmass in IN and vicinity. Some hail may
also occur with the strongest updrafts. Accordingly, Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears likely in the next hour or two.
..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 39478775 40888546 41108477 40808389 40378323 39658333
39098403 38618483 38048599 37518791 37598854 38648784
39478775
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sat Jun 4 18:41:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 042225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042225
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Areas affected...Parts of southeast MT...northeast WY...and
southwest SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 042225Z - 050100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms will increase
between 22-00Z, and persist into the evening hours. The primary
hazard should be sporadic large hail.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude
midlevel trough moving eastward across the Northwest, with
increasing large-scale ascent overspreading the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Regional VWP data shows enhanced midlevel
westerly flow accompanying the trough, while surface observations
show easterly upslope flow across parts of northeast WY into
southeast MT. As surface pressure falls continue over the Rockies, a
modest increase in the easterly low-level flow beneath the
strengthening westerly flow aloft will result in elongated/straight
hodographs characterized by 35-45 kt effective bulk shear. As
diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer continues beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing large-scale ascent,
isolated to widely scattered splitting cells capable of sporadic
large hail and locally gusty winds should spread eastward into the
afternoon. The marginal and localized nature of the threat will
likely preclude watch issuance.
..Weinman/Hart.. 06/04/2022
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43880655 44350709 44760760 44920784 45350829 45870835
46200813 46230760 46180647 45760514 44750387 43780358
43260366 42800452 42860537 43370598 43880655
= = =
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Mon Jun 6 16:42:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 061935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061935
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-062200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022
Areas affected...Portions of far northern KY into IN/OH and far
southeastern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061935Z - 062200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may
persist this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time.
DISCUSSION...Multiple small clusters and cells are ongoing this
afternoon from far northern KY into central/eastern IN and parts of
OH. Once such cluster produced a couple of damaging wind reports
across southwestern OH earlier today before weakening. Around
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present across these areas owing to
modest diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass.
Mid-level west-southwesterly winds are not overly strong at the
moment, with slightly greater flow present with northward extent
across IN/OH and far southeastern Lower MI. Still, around 25-35 kt
of effective bulk shear is contributing to modest organization with
the ongoing convection. Strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of
producing occasional damage should continue to be the main threat
with this activity as it spreads northeastward through the rest of
the afternoon. The most organized cluster is presently over far
northern KY and southeastern IN, moving into southwestern OH. The
eastern extent of the severe threat will be constrained by rapidly
decreasing instability in eastern OH. Current expectations are for
the overall wind threat to remain fairly isolated over the next few
hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 38528480 38938501 39228551 39088686 39298708 39658707
40148692 40588652 41368566 41818448 41998398 42168364
42348330 42328303 42208307 41938307 41678280 41538196
41498177 40938172 40158205 39238267 38668399 38528480
= = =
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sun Jun 12 17:00:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 122013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122012
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-122215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Areas affected...parts of northern Indiana...western and southern Ohio...central West Virginia...adjacent Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 122012Z - 122215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to occasionally severe storms
posing a risk for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are
possible through 5-7 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...Generally weak but persistent convective development,
with embedded thunderstorms, has been occurring within a relatively
narrow eastward advancing corridor across parts of the middle Ohio
Valley. This appears to be just ahead of the leading edge of a
plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
emanating from the Great Plains, and along the southwestern
periphery of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow to the southwest of a
mid-level low slowly turning eastward to the south of James Bay.
Southerly low-level inflow into the storms appears to be emanating
from a seasonably moist (surface dew points around 65-70F)
boundary-layer which has been slowly destabilizing. Limited at
least somewhat by relatively warm mid-level temperatures,
mixed-layer CAPE may only be around 1500 J/kg. However, deep-layer
shear beneath 30-40+ kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb may
support occasional supercell structures posing a risk for hail and
locally strong surface gusts as stronger cells become increasingly
rooted within the boundary-layer late this afternoon.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/12/2022
ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 40868460 40578341 39488146 39238042 38797912 38027935
38438148 39348319 40038414 40498564 40638608 40868460
= = =
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Tue Jun 14 18:44:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 142233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142232
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-150100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Areas affected...Parts of KS...southeast NE...far southwest IA...and
far northwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 142232Z - 150100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for storm development and a
severe risk this afternoon/evening. A watch could eventually be
needed for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a deepening line
of cumulus extending from southeast NE southwestward into central
and south-central KS -- focused along a cold front draped over the
area. Capping at the base of the EML has suppressed convective
development thus far, though a modest increase in surface
convergence and continued diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints
should allow for isolated to widely scattered convective development
during the next few hours -- especially over parts of central into
northeast KS where cumulus is becoming increasingly agitated owing
to stronger low-level convergence and decreasing MLCINH.
While strong southwesterly midlevel flow atop southerly low-level
flow is contributing to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear oriented
parallel to the surface cold front, the southerly flow in the
850-700-mb layer could lead to anafrontal convection initially.
However, if supercell structures become established along/near the
surface boundary, convective elements should track
east-northeastward toward the warm sector. Given steep midlevel
lapse rates and an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph, large hail
will be the primary concern initially. Eventually, damaging winds
could become a growing concern with any surface-based supercell
structures or convective clusters. Trends are being monitored, and a
watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/14/2022
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40359818 40689753 40969689 41089594 40969559 40389537
39549613 38089896 37939995 38330027 39000007 39769918
40359818
= = =
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Tue Jun 21 17:05:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 212043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212043
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northeast Kansas into far northwest
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 212043Z - 212315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail
should increase across parts of northeast Kansas into far northwest
Missouri between 22-00Z. Trends are being monitored for possible
watch issuance this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a quasi-stationary
cold front extending from central Iowa southwestward into central
Kansas. While a shallow cumulus field is evident along the surface
front/wind shift, deeper cumulus is building northward from northern
Oklahoma into southern Kansas -- aided by an influx of steeper
low-level lapse rates. While isolated convection is developing
within this cumulus field, buoyancy is generally limited over
southwest Kansas despite the well-mixed boundary layer.
As the deepening cumulus field and related updrafts gradually spread
northward and impinge on the frontal boundary, convective coverage
should gradually increase over parts of Kansas. While stronger
midlevel flow is displaced to the cool side of the front,
temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 F amid upper 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints over eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri are
contributing to moderate/strong surface-based buoyancy. Deep-layer
flow/storm motions parallel to the surface front and weakening
MLCINH should favor congealing cold pools with time, and as they
intercept the increasing buoyancy to the east, loosely organized
multicell clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible. Given weak large-scale ascent over the
area, there is considerable uncertainty in storm coverage/intensity.
Therefore, trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch could
eventually be needed for this activity.
Areas farther north along the front in northern Missouri into Iowa
are also being monitored this afternoon, and a severe risk could
eventually evolve over these areas as well.
..Weinman/Grams.. 06/21/2022
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38109783 38619795 39189753 39479704 39919600 40219514
40119458 39599429 39109446 38629511 38119628 37889723
38109783
= = =
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Wed Jun 22 18:21:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 222154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222153
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-222330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kentucky...southwest West Virginia...southwestern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222153Z - 222330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster capable of wind damage will continue into
eastern Kentucky and nearby West Virginia/Virginia. A watch is
possible for these areas given the cluster will move into a
similarly favorable environment.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms in far southwest Ohio
continues to move toward/into eastern Kentucky. The Cincinnati TDWR
velocity data shows a pocket of 55-65 kts within the lowest 1000 ft
and along the leading edge of the activity. There was a recent
report of several trees down in Pendleton County, KY associated with
this cluster. Given the mid 90s F temperatures and low 70s dewpoints
ahead of this cluster, a continued threat for wind damage is
expected. A new watch is possible for parts of eastern Kentucky,
southwestern West Virginia and adjacent southwestern Virginia.
..Wendt/Edwards.. 06/22/2022
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38628461 39078408 39128317 38558204 38128133 37348153
36878200 36748239 36718286 36618357 36928430 37868453
38628461
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sun Jul 3 18:31:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 032202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032202
KSZ000-NEZ000-040000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Areas affected...Southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 032202Z - 040000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible in the next 1-2 hours
across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Storms may intensify
and pose a threat for severe winds and sporadic large hail. Trends
will be monitored for the need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows a cluster of
deepening congestus across southwest NE and into far northwest KS.
This cluster resides within a zone of weak surface convergence on
the western periphery of rich boundary-layer moisture (denoted by
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s). Isolated thunderstorms are
possible in the next 1-2 hours as daytime heating/mixing is
maximized. RAP forecast soundings show deep, well mixed boundary
layers despite the improving low-level moisture, which is supported
by observed dewpoint depressions near 30 F. This thermodynamic
profile will be favorable for strong to severe downburst winds as
thunderstorms develop and intensify as they move east into the
richer low-level moisture/better buoyancy. Deep-layer flow is fairly
modest, but adequate to support around 25-30 knots of effective bulk
shear and a few organized cells with an attendant hail threat.
Convective coverage remains uncertain given the weak forcing for
ascent, but a watch may be needed if sufficient storm coverage
becomes apparent.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/03/2022
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39760162 40270181 40920152 41190103 41130036 40889965
40379907 39649882 39129878 38789910 38689946 38779988
39280099 39760162
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Mon Jul 11 17:30:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 112041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112040
INZ000-ILZ000-112245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022
Areas affected...Central/Eastern IL...Western/Central IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112040Z - 112245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been observed over the last hour
or so along the weak wind shift/area of low-level convergence over
central IL. Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition
remains in place, which is likely responsible for the lack of
convective initiation and somewhat flat appearance to the cumulus
thus far. Some potential for convective initiation will persist into
the late afternoon as this area of low-level convergence shifts
southeastward. Warm low to mid-level temperatures and weak low-level convergence will likely limit the overall thunderstorm coverage,
duration and intensity. Vertical shear is strong enough to support
an isolated severe threat if updrafts can mature. Primary severe
threat would be damaging wind gusts, although some isolated hail is
possible too.
..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39668979 40498785 40898615 39988604 38948919 39668979
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Mon Aug 29 11:07:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 291442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291442
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-291645-
Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022
Areas affected...far eastern Iowa across northern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291442Z - 291645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms over eastern Iowa are being monitored for upscale
growth as they shift into Illinois. Damaging wind and hail will be
possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms over southeast IA continue to show strong/deep
updrafts at times with hail potential, but thus far outflow
production has been minimal. The 12Z DVN sounding is very unstable
with MLCAPE already over 3000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates.
Deep-layer mean winds are around 35 kt, which may favor forward
propagation later today. Visible imagery shows ample heating will
take place ahead of the ongoing storms, and additional convection is
forming along the northeastward extension of the front/wind shift.
As the air mass continues to destabilize, downdraft production may
eventually increase to the point of supporting a more organized wind
threat, evolving out of the existing IA activity.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/29/2022
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41039207 41309171 42089063 42458987 42618904 42788775
42338769 41658742 41158760 40508834 40428895 40759202
41039207
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From
Weather Alert@454:1/105 to
All on Sat Sep 17 19:39:00 2022
ACUS11 KWNS 172212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172211
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022
Areas affected...much of northeast Kansas into parts of the mid
Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 172211Z - 180215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms should develop from southeast Nebraska into
east-central and northeast Kansas with large hail and brief tornado
risk. With time, damaging winds should become the primary concern as
storms develop into northwest Missouri this evening.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface observations indicate an
uncapped and unstable air mass near a surface trough extending from
the TX Panhandle across central KS and into eastern NE. Meanwhile,
an outflow boundary stretches from northern MO into western IA,
where air mass modification is underway.
Storms are expected to develop between 23-00Z along the surface
trough into northeast KS and southeast NE, aided by the increasing
low-level jet. Modest mid and upper flow atop increasing low-level southwesterlies will favor both supercells initially and an MCS
later this evening. Steep lapse rates with cool midlevel
temperatures will also favor damaging hail with the initial cellular
activity, and a brief tornado may occur near the old outflow
boundary as well, prior to storms merging this evening.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/17/2022
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 40659468 39809468 39469474 38929516 38389591 38109650
38159723 38169827 38449838 38929834 39299806 40359736
41009706 41479686 41559660 41619624 41549557 41429520
41149496 40659468
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From
Mike Powell@454:1/105 to
All on Fri Jun 30 15:08:00 2023
ACUS11 KWNS 301933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301932
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
Areas affected...east-central Missouri...west-central and southern Illinois...far southwest Indiana and western Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 301932Z - 302200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters capable of severe, damaging gusts,
and large to very large hail are expected by 23z. A severe
thunderstorm watch is likely in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...An expansive cumulus field is noted to the south of an
outflow boundary across southeast MO into southern IL and western
KY/far southwest IN. Surface dewpoints across the region generally
range from 75-79 F amid 90s F temperatures. This is aiding in strong instability, with MLCAPE values from 2500-4500 J/kg. This
environment has allowed for deepening of the cumulus field over the
past hour or so, with some towering cumulus now evident in visible
across east-central MO just south of the I-70 corridor. Convective
initiation is expected by 22-23z. Initial cells are expected to
quickly cluster and propagate toward the east/southeast near the
instability gradient. This activity is expected to remain on the
southern edge of a zone of stronger effective shear, but shear will
be sufficient for storm organization. Very steep low-level lapse
rates, coupled with strong instability, will support intense
downdrafts. Thunderstorm clusters will be capable of severe gusts, a
few greater than 65 kt. While clusters are expected, the more
intense and/or discrete cores will be capable of large hail. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs (per regional
forecast soundings) in the presence of large instability between
700-300 mb suggest isolated very large hail (greater than 2.5 inch
diameter) is possible. While some uncertainty in timing of
convective initiation exists due to a lack of stronger large-scale
ascent, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by around
21-22z.
..Leitman/Grams.. 06/30/2023
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 36628791 36618849 36938947 37229011 37729099 38219143
38329149 38649152 38879142 39069095 39138992 38998909
38278742 37448720 37228721 36768747 36628791
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From
Mike Powell@454:1/105 to
All on Mon Nov 20 09:20:00 2023
ACUS11 KWNS 201311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201311
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201515-
Mesoscale Discussion 2272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023
Areas affected...portions of north TX...southeast OK...and southwest
AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201311Z - 201515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail around a half inch to near one inch in
diameter is possible the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A deepening field of altocumulus is evident in IR
imagery this morning across north TX. Based on 12z FWD RAOB, these
clouds are likely rooted around 600 mb. This indicates increasing
ascent associated with the approaching upper trough is spreading
east, and aiding in modest growth over the past hour. Regional 12z
RAOBs still indicate quite a bit of low-level inhibition, with
layers of dry air above shallow boundary-layer moisture. Moistening
and heating through mid to late morning will continue to improve the thermodynamic environment, while large-scale ascent erodes capping.
In the short term, steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable
vertical shear may support transient strong cells capable of
marginally severe hail through around 16z. A severe thunderstorm
watch is not expected at this time, as initial convection is
expected to only slowly increase in intensity the next few hours,
but trends will be monitored closely.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 11/20/2023
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34179250 33729279 32029513 31449665 31579733 31939779
32289768 34649587 35089512 35169438 34989351 34409263
34179250
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