• MESO: Severe Potential

    From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Wed Jun 2 15:35:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 021828
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021828
    TXZ000-022030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0837
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 021828Z - 022030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
    develop over the next couple of hours across western/central Texas.
    Hail and strong wind gusts may accompany this activity into the
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from morning convection extends
    from near BPG to SJT to BBD early this afternoon. Strong heating in
    the vicinity of the boundary amid upper 50s to low 60s surface
    dewpoints is aiding in strong destabilization, with 2000-2500 J/kg
    MLCAPE noted in 18z mesoanalysis data. A couple of initial
    thunderstorms have developed along/just north of the boundary within
    the past hour or two before weakening. Additional, more robust
    development, has been noted recently over northern Sterling County
    with additional deepening CU noted further northwest to the north of
    Midland. While large-scale forcing will remain somewhat modest,
    additional diurnal development is expected in the vicinity of the
    surface boundary given weak low level convergence and strong
    instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient shear should
    allow for a couple of organized cells capable of hail and strong
    gusts. Timing and convective coverage still remains somewhat
    uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
    over the next few hours.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/02/2021

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32850192 32000051 31689966 31469927 31179910 30829922
    30629954 30490014 30600067 30780116 31500215 31990269
    32360289 32760275 32940235 32850192
    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)
  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Tue Jun 22 17:42:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 222042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222041
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-222245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1063
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska and western Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 222041Z - 222245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms capable of mainly
    large hail and damaging winds possible this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-level showers and occasional thunderstorms have
    been present across western Iowa for much of the day thus far. This
    activity is likely a manifestation of the mid-level moisture and
    steep lapse rates in a region of isentropic ascent. Therefore,
    if/when the MLCIN can erode across this region, surface based storm
    development is anticipated.

    A well developed cu field has been advancing eastward across
    Nebraska over the last few hours with its eastward extent closely
    following the -25 J/kg MLCIN contour from SPC mesoanalysis. Linear extrapolation and forecast MLCIN from the RAP would suggest this cu
    field may advance to near the NE/IA border between 21 and 22Z. This
    will be the most likely time for surface based storm development as
    a minimally capped low-level environment spreads beneath the plume
    of better mid-level moisture and isentropic ascent. The window of
    opportunity for storm based storm development is narrow, but the
    timing appears favorable and the HRRR also supports the idea of
    storms developing around 21Z in the region of Sioux City, IA.

    Any stronger storms which develop will likely be supercellular in
    nature given 50 to 55 kts of effective shear per OAX VWP. These
    storms will pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Any
    storms which develop are only expected to last a few hours before
    boundary layer cooling and subsequent increasing inhibition will
    likely bring and end to strong storms. While storm intensity is
    expected to be sufficient for a severe thunderstorm watch, storm
    coverage and longevity may be too limited.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/22/2021

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41229655 41789765 42329784 42789764 43019625 42429347
    41619263 41059274 40679348 40639438 40599545 41229655
    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)
  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Thu Aug 26 14:51:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 261813
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261812
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-261945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1609
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0112 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Areas affected...Extreme southeast MN/northeast IA...Southwest WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 261812Z - 261945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging wind threat is possible this
    afternoon ahead of a convective line. Watch issuance is currently
    considered unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...At 18Z, a line of thunderstorms is gradually
    intensifying across northeast IA into southeast MN, along a remnant
    outflow from the decaying MCS across central IA. While substantial
    cloud cover is noted downstream into southwest WI, some modest heating/destabilization has occurred, especially near and south of a
    surface boundary draped from southern WI into southwest MN.

    Continued modest destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse
    rates may allow for an increasing damaging wind potential with this
    line as it moves northeastward. Relatively modest deep-layer
    flow/shear (as noted in KARX VWP) should keep organization
    relatively limited, so watch issuance is currently considered
    unlikely.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43859258 44309147 44349064 43999015 43658999 43199019
    43059063 42979113 42959185 43199211 43419235 43859258
    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Wed Dec 29 15:53:00 2021
    ACUS11 KWNS 292036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292036
    GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2075
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

    Areas affected...portions of Middle TN...northern AL and northwest
    GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 292036Z - 292300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase from late
    afternoon into this evening. Timing of watch issuance remains
    uncertain, but may be needed within the next 2-3 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery slowly continues this afternoon across
    parts of northern AL in the wake of morning/early afternoon showers.
    A surface boundary related to this earlier precipitation extends
    west to east from roughly Haleyville AL into far northwest GA. Some
    additional destabilization is expected with northward extent across
    the MCD area in a sustained warm advection regime through the
    evening hours. However, latest hi-res guidance continues to indicate
    some uncertainty with regards to the northward extent of severe
    potential, as well as in timing of the severe threat. Most guidance,
    along with observational trends, preclude discrete warm sector
    development in deference to an eastward-advancing, and currently
    developing, bow/QLCS in the vicinity of the Mississippi
    River/western TN/northwest MS as of 2030z/230pm CST. The best
    estimate of severe storms moving into the MCD area is between
    22-00z.

    Once storms do emerge over the region, a strong low-level jet and
    bowing segments will favor damaging gusts, with a few mesovortex
    tornadoes possible as well. Convective trends will continue to be
    monitored as a watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
    area in the next 2-3 hours.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 12/29/2021

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33818564 33508679 33418766 33538812 33708824 34248826
    35018822 35338794 35498757 35548706 35448624 35328552
    35138516 34848500 34538496 34348502 34198514 33888544
    33818564

    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)
  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Mon Mar 7 16:24:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 072054
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072053
    PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-072300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0220
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

    Areas affected...Western and central Pennsylvania...southwest New
    York...and western Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 072053Z - 072300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A shallow squall line will continue to rapidly progress
    eastward across Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of New York, far
    northern West Virginia, and western Maryland over the next several
    hours. Although it is uncertainty if/when this line will intensify,
    strong winds may cause sporadic wind damage.

    DISCUSSION...A narrow band of shallow, but strongly forced,
    convection has been ongoing across eastern OH into western PA for
    the past couple of hours. This line is primarily being driven by a
    strong surface cold front and is progressing rapidly eastward at
    around 40 mph. Several wind gusts between 35-45 mph have been noted
    across eastern OH and far western PA with the passage of this line,
    and recent velocity data from KPBZ shows winds up to 60 mph between
    500-1000 feet off the surface.

    Although the propensity for severe/damaging winds from this line has
    been low so far, the downstream air mass across central PA is
    gradually becoming more conditionally favorable for deeper
    convection as mid-50s F dewpoints overspread the region. Latest
    RAP/HRRR forecast soundings hint that MLCAPE values up to 250-500
    J/kg are possible by late afternoon if surface temperatures can warm
    into the low to mid 60s. While this is possible, the ongoing cloud
    cover and precipitation cast considerable uncertainty into the
    degree of destabilization. A watch is not anticipated at this time,
    but trends will be monitored over the coming hours for deepening
    convection, warming surface temperatures, and/or surface wind
    observations.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2022

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

    LAT...LON 40858060 41657993 42127926 42327823 42097703 41527644
    40687640 39807687 39487753 39337822 39217920 39518019
    39738063 39958096 40858060
    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)
  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Fri Apr 22 19:30:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 222236
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222235
    KSZ000-COZ000-230030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0535
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0535 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

    Areas affected...Far Southeast Colorado...Western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 222235Z - 230030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next hour
    across far southeast Colorado into western Kansas. Large hail, wind
    damage and an isolated tornado threat will likely accompany the
    stronger thunderstorms. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low over northern
    Colorado with a dryline from near Goodland extending southward to
    near Dalhart. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in
    the mid to upper 50s F. The RAP has MLCAPE to the east of the
    dryline in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms have developed
    just to the east of the dryline in the northwestern Texas Panhandle
    and western Oklahoma Panhandle. This convection is expected to
    continue expanding in coverage, moving north-northeastward into
    southwest Kansas over the next hour. In addition to moderate
    instability, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
    40 knot range. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
    8.0 C/km will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
    Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
    with the more intense supercells.

    The dryline is forecast to retreat early this evening as surface
    winds back to the south-southeast. As a result, a severe threat
    could impact far southeastern Colorado as well. Weather watch
    issuance will likely be needed for parts of far southeast Colorado
    and western Kansas needed soon.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/22/2022

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 39980033 39600003 38730041 37730095 37180136 37110215
    37260240 37510241 37850238 38900203 39620168 39990107
    39980033

    $$
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sat May 21 14:31:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 211817
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211816
    NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-212045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0852
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of northern/central OH into northwestern
    PA and western NY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 211816Z - 212045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and
    intensity this afternoon, with both damaging winds and hail
    possible. Watch issuance will probably be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have recently begun to
    increase in coverage across parts of western/central OH to the south
    of a front. Additional convection will probably form this afternoon
    into northern OH, northwestern PA, and western/central NY along and
    south of a lake breeze. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates and
    robust diurnal heating are supporting moderate to strong
    instability, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 1500-3000 J/kg. Even
    though stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough will
    likely remain displaced to the west of this region, deep-layer shear
    should still be adequate for some updraft organization, with
    multicells possible. Damaging winds will probably be the main threat
    with any robust convection that can develop, but some hail may also
    occur given the steep mid-level lapse rates present. Trends will be
    monitored for increasing thunderstorm coverage, which will probably
    warrant Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance across some part of this
    region in the next couple of hours.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 41098375 41558171 42507930 42977800 43367657 43207612
    42787615 42397684 40968051 40158226 39328388 41098375
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sat May 21 14:33:00 2022
    It is hailing here right now! :)

    ACUS11 KWNS 211700
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211700
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-211900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0851
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1200 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL into IN...western
    OH...and far northern KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

    Valid 211700Z - 211900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Continuing to monitor a line of thunderstorms moving
    across Illinois for signs of increasing intensity and damaging wind
    potential. Watch issuance appears increasingly likely in the next
    couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is present over parts of southern/central IL at 17Z. This line has remained sub-severe so
    far, with wind gusts generally in the 35-45 kt range. Still, the
    airmass downstream into IN and northern KY continues to destabilize
    along and south of a front. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg has become
    common as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s. Recent
    high-resolution guidance suggests that this ongoing cluster will
    intensify over the next couple of hours as it moves eastward across
    IN, northern KY, and eventually parts of western OH. Gradually
    strengthening southwesterly flow through mid levels is noted on
    recent VWPs from KVWX/KIND, which should aid in thunderstorm
    organization. Current expectations are for the cluster to pose a
    gradually increasing threat for scattered damaging winds as it
    encounters a more unstable airmass in IN and vicinity. Some hail may
    also occur with the strongest updrafts. Accordingly, Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears likely in the next hour or two.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39478775 40888546 41108477 40808389 40378323 39658333
    39098403 38618483 38048599 37518791 37598854 38648784
    39478775
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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sat Jun 4 18:41:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 042225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042225
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1032
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of southeast MT...northeast WY...and
    southwest SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 042225Z - 050100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms will increase
    between 22-00Z, and persist into the evening hours. The primary
    hazard should be sporadic large hail.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude
    midlevel trough moving eastward across the Northwest, with
    increasing large-scale ascent overspreading the northern Rockies and
    adjacent High Plains. Regional VWP data shows enhanced midlevel
    westerly flow accompanying the trough, while surface observations
    show easterly upslope flow across parts of northeast WY into
    southeast MT. As surface pressure falls continue over the Rockies, a
    modest increase in the easterly low-level flow beneath the
    strengthening westerly flow aloft will result in elongated/straight
    hodographs characterized by 35-45 kt effective bulk shear. As
    diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer continues beneath
    steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing large-scale ascent,
    isolated to widely scattered splitting cells capable of sporadic
    large hail and locally gusty winds should spread eastward into the
    afternoon. The marginal and localized nature of the threat will
    likely preclude watch issuance.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/04/2022

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43880655 44350709 44760760 44920784 45350829 45870835
    46200813 46230760 46180647 45760514 44750387 43780358
    43260366 42800452 42860537 43370598 43880655


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Mon Jun 6 16:42:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 061935
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061935
    OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-062200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1053
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of far northern KY into IN/OH and far
    southeastern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 061935Z - 062200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may
    persist this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this
    time.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple small clusters and cells are ongoing this
    afternoon from far northern KY into central/eastern IN and parts of
    OH. Once such cluster produced a couple of damaging wind reports
    across southwestern OH earlier today before weakening. Around
    500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present across these areas owing to
    modest diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass.
    Mid-level west-southwesterly winds are not overly strong at the
    moment, with slightly greater flow present with northward extent
    across IN/OH and far southeastern Lower MI. Still, around 25-35 kt
    of effective bulk shear is contributing to modest organization with
    the ongoing convection. Strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of
    producing occasional damage should continue to be the main threat
    with this activity as it spreads northeastward through the rest of
    the afternoon. The most organized cluster is presently over far
    northern KY and southeastern IN, moving into southwestern OH. The
    eastern extent of the severe threat will be constrained by rapidly
    decreasing instability in eastern OH. Current expectations are for
    the overall wind threat to remain fairly isolated over the next few
    hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 38528480 38938501 39228551 39088686 39298708 39658707
    40148692 40588652 41368566 41818448 41998398 42168364
    42348330 42328303 42208307 41938307 41678280 41538196
    41498177 40938172 40158205 39238267 38668399 38528480


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sun Jun 12 17:00:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 122013
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122012
    VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-122215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1131
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

    Areas affected...parts of northern Indiana...western and southern Ohio...central West Virginia...adjacent Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 122012Z - 122215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to occasionally severe storms
    posing a risk for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are
    possible through 5-7 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Generally weak but persistent convective development,
    with embedded thunderstorms, has been occurring within a relatively
    narrow eastward advancing corridor across parts of the middle Ohio
    Valley. This appears to be just ahead of the leading edge of a
    plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
    emanating from the Great Plains, and along the southwestern
    periphery of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow to the southwest of a
    mid-level low slowly turning eastward to the south of James Bay.

    Southerly low-level inflow into the storms appears to be emanating
    from a seasonably moist (surface dew points around 65-70F)
    boundary-layer which has been slowly destabilizing. Limited at
    least somewhat by relatively warm mid-level temperatures,
    mixed-layer CAPE may only be around 1500 J/kg. However, deep-layer
    shear beneath 30-40+ kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb may
    support occasional supercell structures posing a risk for hail and
    locally strong surface gusts as stronger cells become increasingly
    rooted within the boundary-layer late this afternoon.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/12/2022

    ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 40868460 40578341 39488146 39238042 38797912 38027935
    38438148 39348319 40038414 40498564 40638608 40868460


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Tue Jun 14 18:44:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 142233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142232
    MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-150100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1168
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of KS...southeast NE...far southwest IA...and
    far northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 142232Z - 150100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for storm development and a
    severe risk this afternoon/evening. A watch could eventually be
    needed for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a deepening line
    of cumulus extending from southeast NE southwestward into central
    and south-central KS -- focused along a cold front draped over the
    area. Capping at the base of the EML has suppressed convective
    development thus far, though a modest increase in surface
    convergence and continued diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints
    should allow for isolated to widely scattered convective development
    during the next few hours -- especially over parts of central into
    northeast KS where cumulus is becoming increasingly agitated owing
    to stronger low-level convergence and decreasing MLCINH.

    While strong southwesterly midlevel flow atop southerly low-level
    flow is contributing to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear oriented
    parallel to the surface cold front, the southerly flow in the
    850-700-mb layer could lead to anafrontal convection initially.
    However, if supercell structures become established along/near the
    surface boundary, convective elements should track
    east-northeastward toward the warm sector. Given steep midlevel
    lapse rates and an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph, large hail
    will be the primary concern initially. Eventually, damaging winds
    could become a growing concern with any surface-based supercell
    structures or convective clusters. Trends are being monitored, and a
    watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/14/2022

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40359818 40689753 40969689 41089594 40969559 40389537
    39549613 38089896 37939995 38330027 39000007 39769918
    40359818


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Tue Jun 21 17:05:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 212043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212043
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1245
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast Kansas into far northwest
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 212043Z - 212315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail
    should increase across parts of northeast Kansas into far northwest
    Missouri between 22-00Z. Trends are being monitored for possible
    watch issuance this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a quasi-stationary
    cold front extending from central Iowa southwestward into central
    Kansas. While a shallow cumulus field is evident along the surface
    front/wind shift, deeper cumulus is building northward from northern
    Oklahoma into southern Kansas -- aided by an influx of steeper
    low-level lapse rates. While isolated convection is developing
    within this cumulus field, buoyancy is generally limited over
    southwest Kansas despite the well-mixed boundary layer.

    As the deepening cumulus field and related updrafts gradually spread
    northward and impinge on the frontal boundary, convective coverage
    should gradually increase over parts of Kansas. While stronger
    midlevel flow is displaced to the cool side of the front,
    temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 F amid upper 60s boundary-layer
    dewpoints over eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri are
    contributing to moderate/strong surface-based buoyancy. Deep-layer
    flow/storm motions parallel to the surface front and weakening
    MLCINH should favor congealing cold pools with time, and as they
    intercept the increasing buoyancy to the east, loosely organized
    multicell clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and isolated
    large hail will be possible. Given weak large-scale ascent over the
    area, there is considerable uncertainty in storm coverage/intensity.
    Therefore, trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch could
    eventually be needed for this activity.

    Areas farther north along the front in northern Missouri into Iowa
    are also being monitored this afternoon, and a severe risk could
    eventually evolve over these areas as well.

    ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/21/2022

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38109783 38619795 39189753 39479704 39919600 40219514
    40119458 39599429 39109446 38629511 38119628 37889723
    38109783


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Wed Jun 22 18:21:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 222154
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222153
    WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-222330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1259
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0453 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kentucky...southwest West Virginia...southwestern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 222153Z - 222330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster capable of wind damage will continue into
    eastern Kentucky and nearby West Virginia/Virginia. A watch is
    possible for these areas given the cluster will move into a
    similarly favorable environment.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms in far southwest Ohio
    continues to move toward/into eastern Kentucky. The Cincinnati TDWR
    velocity data shows a pocket of 55-65 kts within the lowest 1000 ft
    and along the leading edge of the activity. There was a recent
    report of several trees down in Pendleton County, KY associated with
    this cluster. Given the mid 90s F temperatures and low 70s dewpoints
    ahead of this cluster, a continued threat for wind damage is
    expected. A new watch is possible for parts of eastern Kentucky,
    southwestern West Virginia and adjacent southwestern Virginia.

    ..Wendt/Edwards.. 06/22/2022

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 38628461 39078408 39128317 38558204 38128133 37348153
    36878200 36748239 36718286 36618357 36928430 37868453
    38628461


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sun Jul 3 18:31:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 032202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032202
    KSZ000-NEZ000-040000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1346
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

    Areas affected...Southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 032202Z - 040000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible in the next 1-2 hours
    across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Storms may intensify
    and pose a threat for severe winds and sporadic large hail. Trends
    will be monitored for the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows a cluster of
    deepening congestus across southwest NE and into far northwest KS.
    This cluster resides within a zone of weak surface convergence on
    the western periphery of rich boundary-layer moisture (denoted by
    dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s). Isolated thunderstorms are
    possible in the next 1-2 hours as daytime heating/mixing is
    maximized. RAP forecast soundings show deep, well mixed boundary
    layers despite the improving low-level moisture, which is supported
    by observed dewpoint depressions near 30 F. This thermodynamic
    profile will be favorable for strong to severe downburst winds as
    thunderstorms develop and intensify as they move east into the
    richer low-level moisture/better buoyancy. Deep-layer flow is fairly
    modest, but adequate to support around 25-30 knots of effective bulk
    shear and a few organized cells with an attendant hail threat.
    Convective coverage remains uncertain given the weak forcing for
    ascent, but a watch may be needed if sufficient storm coverage
    becomes apparent.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/03/2022

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39760162 40270181 40920152 41190103 41130036 40889965
    40379907 39649882 39129878 38789910 38689946 38779988
    39280099 39760162


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Mon Jul 11 17:30:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 112041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112040
    INZ000-ILZ000-112245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1451
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern IL...Western/Central IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 112040Z - 112245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been observed over the last hour
    or so along the weak wind shift/area of low-level convergence over
    central IL. Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition
    remains in place, which is likely responsible for the lack of
    convective initiation and somewhat flat appearance to the cumulus
    thus far. Some potential for convective initiation will persist into
    the late afternoon as this area of low-level convergence shifts
    southeastward. Warm low to mid-level temperatures and weak low-level convergence will likely limit the overall thunderstorm coverage,
    duration and intensity. Vertical shear is strong enough to support
    an isolated severe threat if updrafts can mature. Primary severe
    threat would be damaging wind gusts, although some isolated hail is
    possible too.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39668979 40498785 40898615 39988604 38948919 39668979


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Mon Aug 29 11:07:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 291442
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291442
    INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-291645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1740
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0942 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

    Areas affected...far eastern Iowa across northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 291442Z - 291645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms over eastern Iowa are being monitored for upscale
    growth as they shift into Illinois. Damaging wind and hail will be
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms over southeast IA continue to show strong/deep
    updrafts at times with hail potential, but thus far outflow
    production has been minimal. The 12Z DVN sounding is very unstable
    with MLCAPE already over 3000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates.
    Deep-layer mean winds are around 35 kt, which may favor forward
    propagation later today. Visible imagery shows ample heating will
    take place ahead of the ongoing storms, and additional convection is
    forming along the northeastward extension of the front/wind shift.

    As the air mass continues to destabilize, downdraft production may
    eventually increase to the point of supporting a more organized wind
    threat, evolving out of the existing IA activity.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/29/2022

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41039207 41309171 42089063 42458987 42618904 42788775
    42338769 41658742 41158760 40508834 40428895 40759202
    41039207


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  • From Weather Alert@454:1/105 to All on Sat Sep 17 19:39:00 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 172212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172211
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1792
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

    Areas affected...much of northeast Kansas into parts of the mid
    Missouri Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 172211Z - 180215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms should develop from southeast Nebraska into
    east-central and northeast Kansas with large hail and brief tornado
    risk. With time, damaging winds should become the primary concern as
    storms develop into northwest Missouri this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface observations indicate an
    uncapped and unstable air mass near a surface trough extending from
    the TX Panhandle across central KS and into eastern NE. Meanwhile,
    an outflow boundary stretches from northern MO into western IA,
    where air mass modification is underway.

    Storms are expected to develop between 23-00Z along the surface
    trough into northeast KS and southeast NE, aided by the increasing
    low-level jet. Modest mid and upper flow atop increasing low-level southwesterlies will favor both supercells initially and an MCS
    later this evening. Steep lapse rates with cool midlevel
    temperatures will also favor damaging hail with the initial cellular
    activity, and a brief tornado may occur near the old outflow
    boundary as well, prior to storms merging this evening.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/17/2022

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

    LAT...LON 40659468 39809468 39469474 38929516 38389591 38109650
    38159723 38169827 38449838 38929834 39299806 40359736
    41009706 41479686 41559660 41619624 41549557 41429520
    41149496 40659468


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  • From Mike Powell@454:1/105 to All on Fri Jun 30 15:08:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 301933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301932
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1358
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

    Areas affected...east-central Missouri...west-central and southern Illinois...far southwest Indiana and western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

    Valid 301932Z - 302200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters capable of severe, damaging gusts,
    and large to very large hail are expected by 23z. A severe
    thunderstorm watch is likely in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...An expansive cumulus field is noted to the south of an
    outflow boundary across southeast MO into southern IL and western
    KY/far southwest IN. Surface dewpoints across the region generally
    range from 75-79 F amid 90s F temperatures. This is aiding in strong instability, with MLCAPE values from 2500-4500 J/kg. This
    environment has allowed for deepening of the cumulus field over the
    past hour or so, with some towering cumulus now evident in visible
    across east-central MO just south of the I-70 corridor. Convective
    initiation is expected by 22-23z. Initial cells are expected to
    quickly cluster and propagate toward the east/southeast near the
    instability gradient. This activity is expected to remain on the
    southern edge of a zone of stronger effective shear, but shear will
    be sufficient for storm organization. Very steep low-level lapse
    rates, coupled with strong instability, will support intense
    downdrafts. Thunderstorm clusters will be capable of severe gusts, a
    few greater than 65 kt. While clusters are expected, the more
    intense and/or discrete cores will be capable of large hail. Steep
    midlevel lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs (per regional
    forecast soundings) in the presence of large instability between
    700-300 mb suggest isolated very large hail (greater than 2.5 inch
    diameter) is possible. While some uncertainty in timing of
    convective initiation exists due to a lack of stronger large-scale
    ascent, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by around
    21-22z.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 06/30/2023

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 36628791 36618849 36938947 37229011 37729099 38219143
    38329149 38649152 38879142 39069095 39138992 38998909
    38278742 37448720 37228721 36768747 36628791


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  • From Mike Powell@454:1/105 to All on Mon Nov 20 09:20:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 201311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201311
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2272
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0711 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

    Areas affected...portions of north TX...southeast OK...and southwest
    AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 201311Z - 201515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail around a half inch to near one inch in
    diameter is possible the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A deepening field of altocumulus is evident in IR
    imagery this morning across north TX. Based on 12z FWD RAOB, these
    clouds are likely rooted around 600 mb. This indicates increasing
    ascent associated with the approaching upper trough is spreading
    east, and aiding in modest growth over the past hour. Regional 12z
    RAOBs still indicate quite a bit of low-level inhibition, with
    layers of dry air above shallow boundary-layer moisture. Moistening
    and heating through mid to late morning will continue to improve the thermodynamic environment, while large-scale ascent erodes capping.
    In the short term, steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable
    vertical shear may support transient strong cells capable of
    marginally severe hail through around 16z. A severe thunderstorm
    watch is not expected at this time, as initial convection is
    expected to only slowly increase in intensity the next few hours,
    but trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 11/20/2023

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34179250 33729279 32029513 31449665 31579733 31939779
    32289768 34649587 35089512 35169438 34989351 34409263
    34179250


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