ACUS11 KWNS 170623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170623=20
TXZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170623Z - 170900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat is expected
to continue across parts of south-central Texas over the next few
hours. Although weather watch issuance is unlikely, the need for a
watch still remains possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a severe short line
segment about 80 statute miles to the south-southeast of Del Rio.
This line appears to be associated with a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across the Del Rio, evident on water vapor imagery.
The line is located along the western edge of moderate instability
and will move into increasing instability over the next few hours.
The latest WSR-88D VWP from Del Rio has effective shear near 55
knots and some speed shear in the mid-levels. While effective shear
will be adequate for a severe threat, a weak inversion does exist
near the surface according to RAP forecast soundings. For this
reason and frontal-undercutting, the storms could remain elevated.
The severe threat is expected to continue to be isolated. Large hail
and wind damage will be the primary threats, as the storms move
eastward across south-central Texas over the next few hours.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WF15lF-elolCcE15Jqa1o6WcmM9-KFf6ohrcxoG5hvfzPlURr2nX9ZZlZXXJPH4ixRPMJ6MN= 5e4LDmnLOhiApyoxNg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28530011 28780014 28950006 29049973 28919830 28819791
28519761 27999774 27769813 27799871 27909942 28139989
28530011=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 170627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170626 COR
TXZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170626Z - 170900Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat is expected
to continue across parts of south-central Texas over the next few
hours. Although weather watch issuance is unlikely, the need for a
watch still remains possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a severe short line
segment about 80 statute miles to the south-southeast of Del Rio.
This line appears to be associated with a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across the Rio Grande Valley, evident on water vapor
imagery. The line is located along the western edge of moderate
instability and will move into increasing instability over the next
few hours. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Del Rio has effective shear
near 55 knots and some speed shear in the mid-levels. While
effective shear will be adequate for a severe threat, a weak
inversion does exist near the surface according to RAP forecast
soundings. For this reason and frontal-undercutting, the storms
could remain elevated. The severe threat is expected to continue to
be isolated. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats,
as the storms move eastward across south-central Texas over the next
few hours.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-n5zCkt7jyHG8YQaMnHiZF5KcfGEpYFN0EdjzF90vzExCdc-sWLsGAoEMuNLIW8gJvvluS0iX= UKepXY0weJXxj12s9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28530011 28780014 28950006 29049973 28919830 28819791
28519761 27999774 27769813 27799871 27909942 28139989
28530011=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 252017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252017=20
LAZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Areas affected...southwestern through northeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

Valid 252017Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

SUMMARY...More rapid intensification of stronger cells embedded
within the developing line of storms still appears possible through
4-6 PM CDT, including the evolution of one or two supercells
accompanied by increasing risk for tornadoes

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slow to substantively intensify
to this point. However, a gradual modification of the
boundary-layer is ongoing, particularly in a narrow corridor in
advance of the evolving line, southeast of Fort Polk through the
Alexandria and Monroe vicinities, where surface dew points are
likely to continue to increase through the mid/upper 60s F.=20=20

Beneath 50-60 kt southerly flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer, low-level
hodographs have become large and clockwise curved. Perhaps with at
least some further low-level warming, inflow of more unstable air
may become sufficient to support more rapid intensification of
stronger cells embedded within the line. If this occurs, the
environment is conducive to the evolution of supercells posing a
risk for tornadoes, possibly including a strong tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 03/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9EUy78_8Fvhjd-EdGsuDYNuDFAq606ZZNALoaX-A_QBvl9pJw1rK9kpubZfwT2fPmZ6xfTMmE= _tTEMyjAu8x8vGa_Pg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30939304 32209230 32799193 32589143 31649180 30709256
30539321 30939304=20


=3D =3D =3D
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