ACUS11 KWNS 170443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170442=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-170615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...East TX into central/northern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...70...

Valid 170442Z - 170615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69, 70 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado
will continue overnight. Some threat may spread east of WW 70, but
the need for additional watch issuance is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS is ongoing at 0430Z along a cold
front from east TX into northwest LA. A notable inflection along the
line is noted moving into De Soto Parish, LA, where a supercell was
earlier absorbed into the frontal QLCS. Strong low-level flow/shear
noted on the KPOE VWP will continue to support locally damaging
gusts and possibly a brief tornado along this part of the line, and
any other embedded bowing segments that can be sustained without
being undercut by the front.=20

Farther east, persistent elevated convection has organized into a
small cluster across north-central LA. With very limited MLCAPE this
far east, the severe potential with this cluster may be somewhat
limited, but isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as
it moves eastward.=20

With time, the leading cluster and eventually the frontal QLCS will
approach the eastern edge of WW 70. With buoyancy expected to remain
very limited into northeast LA, the need for downstream watch
issuance is uncertain at this time, and will depend on short-term
observational trends regarding the organization and intensity of the
ongoing storms, and any further destabilization that can occur in
the next 1-2 hours.

..Dean/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_zJtvsi-SLP8D8PE2nE3Od_SL1J3geYre13Se1ioNrmDfWbSpY-j8s-clg8VlwphnLl4GSGNb= fNBQDH5CG1v9Ce13SU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31119549 32209390 32719307 32889198 32899163 32689122
31669157 31109260 30799383 30819537 31119549=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 251939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251938=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-252145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Areas affected...southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251938Z - 252145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, gusty wind, and an isolated
tornado possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Low top thunderstorm development has been ongoing near
the surface low and front across western Iowa into northwestern
Missouri. Surface observations have shown slow warming and
moistening of a relatively cool and stable boundary layer through
the morning, with temperatures now in the upper 50s to mid 60s and
dew points in the 50s. Though the thermal profile is marginal
(around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8
C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon.
Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest
low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated
tornado could be possible. A few instances of gusty winds or hail
will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this time.

..Thornton/Hart.. 03/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yKyRkzqFvQpMvE6iWITdby4QLM1UOaGRGyTR3iGIYgGtwjYhFCWSnSoBpH-80ZrSQZcy-YnT= CfMQvKCGiGHz_IU5oo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41439629 41699622 42379593 42829519 42649468 42359435
41779425 41489424 40829441 40329464 40209511 40269555
40589588 41439629=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 251944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251944 COR
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-252145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Areas affected...southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251944Z - 252145Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, gusty wind, and an isolated
tornado possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Low top thunderstorm development has been ongoing near
the surface low and front across western Iowa into northwestern
Missouri. Surface observations have shown slow warming and
moistening of a relatively cool and stable boundary layer through
the morning, with temperatures now in the upper 50s to mid 60s and
dew points in the 50s. Though the thermal profile is marginal
(around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8
C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon.
Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest
low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated
tornado could be possible. A few instances of gusty winds or hail
will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this time.

..Thornton/Hart.. 03/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Vyqbzu62PKG5ZK6sQNW6z8lY5B3iDBVlxNLngNxW0N8RUcTy_PSE4Ld-9ihWNGJKcI7X2-yW= uBXSt8AEheNsTTMK-Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 40279553 40919595 41439599 41979591 42369563 42829519
42649468 42359435 41779425 41489424 40829441 40329464
40209511 40279553=20


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