• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0298

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 17 01:20:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 170120
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170119=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-170245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0298
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0819 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central into northeast TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

    Valid 170119Z - 170245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

    SUMMARY...Some hail threat will continue in the short-term before
    gradually diminishing, while the threat for damaging wind and a
    couple of tornadoes will continue into late evening.

    DISCUSSION...AT 0115Z, a long-lived supercell cluster is moving
    across northeast TX, just ahead of an accelerating band of
    thunderstorms along the cold front. The downstream environment is
    characterized by weaker buoyancy but somewhat stronger low-level
    flow/shear. As a result, the hail threat may tend to diminish with
    time, though severe hail will remain a risk with the ongoing
    supercells and strongest frontal convection for the next 1-2 hours.
    Meanwhile, some tornado threat will persist with the ongoing
    supercells, supported by 0-1 km SRH in excess of 250 m2/s2. With
    time, as the front overtakes the ongoing supercell cluster, damaging
    wind will likely become the primary threat within an expanding QLCS,
    though a brief line-embedded tornado will remain possible, given the
    favorable low-level shear/SRH in place.

    ..Dean.. 03/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8XNRuf0U5AMaso1zA8ZRBtbbN8FvoovtjPgWU7FL1xuhtdP3yQfSYk7AMMHuEwXF-wSXEBfJu= E7iz2L6JSZ0FKz83Dk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30989732 32509643 33319550 33689484 33539426 33189420
    32639436 32529448 31879504 31129567 30839632 30819695
    30989732=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 25 00:03:10 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 250003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250002=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-250200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0298
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0702 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

    Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...Southern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59...

    Valid 250002Z - 250200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be
    possible this evening. The threat is expected to be too isolated for
    weather watch issuance, to the east of the current watch.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Oklahoma City
    shows a north-to-south corridor of convection across west-central
    Oklahoma, where a couple severe storms are ongoing. The airmass
    ahead of this convection is weakly unstable, with MLCAPE generally
    around 500 J/kg. Water vapor imagery suggests that a subtle
    shortwave trough is moving through central Oklahoma. This feature
    should continue to provide support for continued convective
    development for a couple more hours. Mesoscale analysis from the RAP
    currently has strong deep-layer shear in place across much of
    central Oklahoma, suggesting that an isolated severe threat will
    continue this evening. However, as the storms move further east into
    weaker instability, any severe threat should become increasingly
    isolated. Large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible,
    before the severe threat continues to downtrend further.

    ..Broyles.. 03/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4OFBqWl5cjhfyrxPGvra04YZCrChfzUho1NKZ-9IjXT97Mz1AdgYKvctX3qql8P66FHjBfeLI= TRmNBjUrRRuQmZhhUE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34919664 35669660 36739666 37319672 37539689 37659734
    37569786 37289810 36699820 35789816 34839802 34489779
    34419742 34459709 34619682 34919664=20


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