ACUS11 KWNS 162239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162238=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-170015-
Mesoscale Discussion 0296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023
Areas affected...Central/north TX...Southeast OK...Southwest
AR...Northwest LA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...
Valid 162238Z - 170015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards continues across WW 68.
Downstream watch issuance into parts of southwest Arkansas,
northeast Texas, and northwest Louisiana is likely by 00Z.
DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster is ongoing at 2230Z across
the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex vicinity, with other severe storms
noted along a cold front into southeast OK, and southward along a
dryline into central TX. Across central into north TX, MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support
supercell structures capable of very large hail, with 2-inch hail
recently being noted with an LP supercell in Johnson County, TX, and
3-inch hail with the supercell cluster in Tarrant County. Locally
severe gusts will also be possible, especially with the potentially upscale-growing cluster near the Metroplex, and also with any
stronger cells into central TX where low-level lapse rates are
steeper. A possible tornado was reported earlier near Fort Worth,
and the environment remains generally favorable for tornadic
supercells, especially if any discrete supercells can be maintained
into northeast TX, where stronger low-level shear/SRH is in place.=20=20
Farther north into southeast OK, storms are moving into a less
unstable environment, with MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less noted in
recent mesoanalyses. This will tend to limit the hail threat with
time, though an increasingly linear mode may continue to support a
threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado, given
rather strong low-level and deep-layer noted in recent mesoanalyses
and the KSHV VWP. Downstream, modest destabilization will be
possible in advance of the ongoing storms into northwest LA and
southwest AR. With the threat for locally damaging gusts and
possibly a couple of tornadoes expected to move out of WW 68,
downstream watch issuance is likely by 00Z.
..Dean/Bunting.. 03/16/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Qdm8mC6JAqeHKYlbZr_hTGJa3kj1S53NCZuUzFfIq_SDd9fjJ4p3DlrgJ637EzDJR1aZfjKY= 2yGC4GlFRv1GmMhcTQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31109860 33489735 35009591 35069499 34949432 33839359
32719346 31659385 30839532 30579649 30899780 31109860=20
=3D =3D =3D
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