• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0296

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 16 22:39:40 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 162239
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162238=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-170015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0296
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0538 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

    Areas affected...Central/north TX...Southeast OK...Southwest
    AR...Northwest LA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

    Valid 162238Z - 170015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards continues across WW 68.
    Downstream watch issuance into parts of southwest Arkansas,
    northeast Texas, and northwest Louisiana is likely by 00Z.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster is ongoing at 2230Z across
    the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex vicinity, with other severe storms
    noted along a cold front into southeast OK, and southward along a
    dryline into central TX. Across central into north TX, MLCAPE of
    1500-2500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support
    supercell structures capable of very large hail, with 2-inch hail
    recently being noted with an LP supercell in Johnson County, TX, and
    3-inch hail with the supercell cluster in Tarrant County. Locally
    severe gusts will also be possible, especially with the potentially upscale-growing cluster near the Metroplex, and also with any
    stronger cells into central TX where low-level lapse rates are
    steeper. A possible tornado was reported earlier near Fort Worth,
    and the environment remains generally favorable for tornadic
    supercells, especially if any discrete supercells can be maintained
    into northeast TX, where stronger low-level shear/SRH is in place.=20=20

    Farther north into southeast OK, storms are moving into a less
    unstable environment, with MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less noted in
    recent mesoanalyses. This will tend to limit the hail threat with
    time, though an increasingly linear mode may continue to support a
    threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado, given
    rather strong low-level and deep-layer noted in recent mesoanalyses
    and the KSHV VWP. Downstream, modest destabilization will be
    possible in advance of the ongoing storms into northwest LA and
    southwest AR. With the threat for locally damaging gusts and
    possibly a couple of tornadoes expected to move out of WW 68,
    downstream watch issuance is likely by 00Z.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 03/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Qdm8mC6JAqeHKYlbZr_hTGJa3kj1S53NCZuUzFfIq_SDd9fjJ4p3DlrgJ637EzDJR1aZfjKY= 2yGC4GlFRv1GmMhcTQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31109860 33489735 35009591 35069499 34949432 33839359
    32719346 31659385 30839532 30579649 30899780 31109860=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 24 23:05:34 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 242305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242305=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-250130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0296
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

    Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...Southern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242305Z - 250130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts
    of northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated large hail and a
    few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance
    remains possible, although the severe threat is only expected to
    persist for a few more hours.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far
    southwest Kansas, with an inverted surface trough extending
    north-northeastward from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska.
    Several linear-based storms are ongoing near the trough. In spite of
    surface dewpoints only in the mid to upper 40s F, the RAP has 500 to
    750 J/kg of MLCAPE. The last WSR-88D VWP at Hastings has 30-35 knots
    of 0-6 km shear, and veering of the winds with height in the lowest
    2 km. This should be enough to continue an isolated severe threat.
    Isolated large hail could occur with strongest of updrafts, along
    with a few marginally severe wind gusts. Also, a potential for a
    landspout tornado could continue along and near the eastern edge of
    the convection.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4I4AYjol6eyyrVyw-0xaGiO6ZPkrYEExevzN9vs2fkgPsMA3wz4u2c_Ku0QpSOXKNPV9CDSkN= kFnMUljkdDo0cAuW0Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39249893 39899845 40489821 40769837 40919888 40919931
    40839961 40609986 40409998 39800040 39470051 39210036
    39099993 39079945 39249893=20


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