ACUS11 KWNS 162126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162125=20
TXZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 162125Z - 162230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms developing long the dryline may pose a severe risk
in the next couple of hours. Tornado Watch 68 will be extended
southward.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 30 minutes, several stronger updrafts
have emerged along and ahead of the dryline west of Interstate 35 in
central TX. Ahead of the developing convection, temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s F with dewpoints in the mid 60s were supporting
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear remains highly favorable
for supercells with the FWD 20z special sounding/VAD showing 50-55
kt of effective shear. As storms mature, they may pose a risk for
large to very large hail given favorable buoyancy and deep-layer
shear. A tornado risk may also evolve if storms are able to remain
discrete farther east where low-level shear is stronger. Given the
current position and projected trajectories of the new storms,
Tornado Watch 68 will be extended southward.

..Lyons/Bunting.. 03/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_JEBfRbj3TBvLpkZOc-z7WIIkGejIXozpsHhmoeHMqtTvNuOtHBrk5wHcGJHKv1dcpCKEbgU3= is5c2w2nmPkszerfwU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31829837 32069800 32099701 32099657 32009638 31699652
31059712 30959737 30919790 31049847 31139862 31589862
31829837=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 242205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242204=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota and
northern/central Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 242204Z - 250300Z

SUMMARY...A snowband with eventual heavy rates near 1-1.5 inch/hour
is expected to move northward across parts of southeastern Minnesota
and northern/central Wisconsin into tonight. The onset of heavier
rates is expected in the 23Z-04Z time frame.

DISCUSSION...KARX radar data and mesoanalysis as of 22Z indicate a
well-defined frontogenetic band moving northward across far northern
IA, southern MN, and southwest WI. This band is generally located
along the northern periphery of a swath of 40-50-kt 1-km flow per
regional VWP data, which also shows a large clockwise-curved
low-level hodograph -- indicative of strong low-level warm-air
advection. The associated low-level warm nose is yielding melting of hydrometeors beneath the snowband (and a robust bright-banding
signature), with light to moderate snowfall rates thus far.

With time, the band will continue northward into a region of colder
low-level air, and additional low-level cooling should be aided by
nocturnal effects and wet-bulbing. As a result, snowfall rates
should eventually increase to near 1-1.5 inch/hour as the snowband
moves into the increasingly cold air. There is some uncertainty on
how widespread these heavier rates will be (especially in the next
couple of hours), due to the marginally cold temperatures and much
of the frontogenetic ascent remaining below the dendritic growth
zone. Nevertheless, the heavy-snow potential should increase in the
23Z-04Z time frame.

..Weinman.. 03/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98eEDPQb_0eQZfhAnTMlV98R4faLp27pAVH-dYSzBlrTig7PmGPMc31Xx80ojikw7o1K-XWHw= iWqxe8-goQKLDCdDyA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44059117 43959249 43979386 44239442 44649458 45019452
45409416 45709334 45959186 45928898 45698837 45288825
44718867 44218993 44059117=20


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