ACUS11 KWNS 161753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161752=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-161845-
Mesoscale Discussion 0291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023
Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in south-central
OK and north TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 161752Z - 161845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few
tornadoes is increasing. A WW will likely be issued in the next
couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...As a mid-level wave overspreads the region, ongoing
convection initiation (currently located along the I-44 corridor in southwestern/central OK) is expected to continue southwestward into
portions of north TX. This will occur along a surging cold front
and, possibly, ahead of the cold front near a triple point along an
eastward surging dryline. All severe hazards will be possible with
these storms, including a few tornadoes (perhaps one or two strong),
large hail, and damaging wind gusts. A WW will likely be needed in
the next 1-2 hours.
For storms initiating along the cold front, the nature of associated
hazards will depend on a delicate balance between expected storm
motion and cold front motion. Given a southward-surging cold front,
sustained surface-based supercells appear unlikely. However,
forecast soundings suggest early/mature supercell bearings around
240/260 degrees, respectively. The cold front also turns sharply
toward the northeast through western OK (roughly from LTS/OJA/WDG).
These factors may support more sustained surface-based inflow with
any supercells forming along that portion of the cold front,
suggesting a greater threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
Regardless of the surface-based nature of the inflow, any supercell
forming near the front will pose a threat for large hail given
substantial low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
large bulk shear.
A conditional threat for a few tornadoes, perhaps one or two strong,
and large, damaging hail could materialize if any pre-frontal
discrete supercells form. The greatest chance for this to occur
should reside along the Red River Valley, downstream of an
anticipated triple point around 19-20z near CDS. Some CAM guidance
suggests successful convection initiation in this area. Any storms
forming here would move eastward into an environment supportive of
strong tornadoes and very large hail. Bubbling Cu are currently
noted in northwest TX ahead of the cold front. Should successful
convection initiation occur here, a local corridor of greater
severe-weather potential may materialize this afternoon along the
Red River Valley.
..Flournoy/Kerr.. 03/16/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-NcSMnTuBIfIYCJFvn6N5UMsvInetKGEvz1BDlaz-Y4L1kuuHL67vBdC4DsaQthI3MWmKQaXE= 4qdsr2QKPwllVetMqc$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33019856 33639890 34109905 34669876 35039792 35169723
35129606 34719548 33849521 32959562 32659662 32789775
33019856=20
=3D =3D =3D
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