ACUS11 KWNS 161527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161527=20
OKZ000-161730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161527Z - 161730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase from
southwest into central OK over the next 1-2 hours. Hail will be the
main hazard with initial thunderstorms into early afternoon. A watch
may be needed in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Areas of deeper convective cells are developing within
broader area of showers across western OK late this morning ahead of
a fast, southeastward-advancing surface cold front. An elevated
mixed-layer noted in 12z regional RAOBs may result in initial
thunderstorm activity remaining elevated. Also, as the cold front
quickly progresses southeast, initial storms late this morning into
midday may quickly become undercut by the front. Forecast RAP/NAM
soundings indicate some erosion of steeper midlevel lapse rates is
occurring as early showers move across central OK. However, midlevel
lapse rates, coupled with favorable shear profiles and modest
instability, should support a few organized cells/clusters capable
of producing hail.

There is some uncertainty in intensity of initial storms in a narrow
corridor (generally along the I-44/I-40 corridor) in central OK the
next few hours. However, a greater severe threat, including
potential for a few tornadoes, is expected just south and east
across south-central/southeast OK and north TX, where more favorable surface-based convection is expected by mid-afternoon. While the
tornado threat may be lower across the narrow corridor of mainly
large hail potential across central OK, a watch may be needed in the
next hour or so.

..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7H0VVdPaaecYV5IvdfxMKtkBv3zWKJ_me9TVqOcCU9ruMbzhAt7r-tjGPtNlHfTodpqsYXo-4= tbOLGtx8ZMQeAOprM4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34899927 35209881 35619802 36179673 36149635 35979611
35729613 35319624 34949715 34519853 34479930 34659949
34899927=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 240117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240117=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-240315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southern Maine

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 240117Z - 240315Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will remain a concern across portions of
southern Maine for at least the next few hours. Occasional instances
of sleet or snow are also possible.

DISCUSSION...KGYX and KCBW dual polarimetric radar data continues to
show a stationary transition zone between rain and a wintry mix,
roughly oriented from York to northern Washington County Maine. This
boundary should only slowly progress eastward over the next few
hours as the low-level cyclone continues to parallel the boundary
orientation and traverse the Atlantic Coastline. While snow
(occasionally heavy) will continue to the north of the transition
zone, freezing rain and occasional instances of a rain/snow/sleet
mix should persist nearer to the Maine coastline. Here, surface
temperatures hover around the freezing mark, but temperatures above
the surface have warmed above freezing given strong WAA. 0.05 inch/3
hour ice accretion rates are most likely 20+ nautical miles inland,
where surface temperatures remain around 31-32 F, which is in
agreement with some of the latest high-resolution model guidance.

..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Q-uklkqQC2XRfNTvZT5vRBq6-zXlhB1jt5rfvnzOFroJRxHjbYQvYuj70ocMNs1uQx8rVmYo= BQ-UwOx_182K6WncJU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 43627100 43777109 43787092 43927067 44137024 44426959
44726887 45016814 45016752 44806749 44206827 43876908
43626980 43417034 43317063 43367085 43627100=20


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