• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0284

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 12 23:34:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 122334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122333=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-130030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0284
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0633 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

    Areas affected...northern Florida

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 67...

    Valid 122333Z - 130030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms continue to diminish across northern Florida.=20
    Severe risk appears sufficiently low at this point, to allow WW 67
    to expire as scheduled at 13/00Z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a leading/southward-sagging
    band of storms moving across northern Florida, though southern
    portions of WW 67. Convection has continued to weaken with time, in
    part due to weak low-level convergence as indicated by veered
    low-level flow, and in part due to modest instability/weak lapse
    rates.

    With downward trends expected to continue, with respect to
    convective intensity, severe risk appears to be low enough at this
    point that additional WW issuance appears unnecessary.

    ..Goss.. 03/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9o9wxpZzWqhEm4McZ8QvVytbbOAMe_j44WpQ5JVtrzJTU77f46eyFX_QysQzHu6p_vLXvAmn1= IiZo1_qra0cnGuVsSc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30048612 30288520 30498306 30728153 30398155 29608327
    29728511 30048612=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 23 02:15:34 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 230214
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230213=20
    FLZ000-230415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0284
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0913 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

    Areas affected...South Florida and the Florida Keys

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...

    Valid 230213Z - 230415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue over the Florida Keys, and
    is expected to develop and increase over the southern Florida
    Peninsula over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Key West shows a
    cluster of strong to severe storms over the waters to the north of
    and just south of Key West. Well-organized and strongly rotating
    supercells appear to be ongoing within this cluster. The cluster
    will move eastward across the Florida Keys vicinity over the next
    couple of hours. Additional storms are expected to develop across
    the southern Florida Peninsula. According to the RAP, MLCAPE in the
    Florida Keys is generally near or above 1000 J/kg, with somewhat
    weaker instability in south Florida. The WSR-88D VWP at Key West
    still has an impressive shear environment, with 0-6 km shear at 60
    knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This should
    continue support a tornado threat with supercells, and a strong
    tornado will be possible with the any supercell that becomes
    intense. A wind-damage and isolated large hail will also likely
    accompany the stronger storms. If a line segment can become
    organized, then the wind-damage threat will likely increase as well.

    ..Broyles.. 03/23/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9pNAJ5Ui8V1eqphkf60w52jSaM90rlCWsUPrjYTYIoiPtObBEIQzfbcAqE0cvncYESEwawZmG= eqc4ejdOcsevhkU5qQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

    LAT...LON 24898228 24448240 24318183 24678078 25038026 25388021
    25648040 25738076 25748134 25628177 25368204 24898228=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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