ACUS11 KWNS 121419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121419=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-121645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Areas affected...southern MS...southern AL...FL
Panhandle...southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121419Z - 121645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual intensification of storms is expected through the
late morning and into the midday hours. The primary threats will be
isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this morning shows a broken rain shield
with embedded thunderstorms from northern GA west-southwestward into
southern MS. A few line segments have evolved and are moving east-southeastward into a slowly destabilizing airmass across the
coastal plain. Mid morning surface conditions show temperatures in
the lower 70s with near 70 deg F dewpoints over southern MS into
southwest AL/FL Panhandle. Cooler temperatures (lower-mid 60s) are
located in west-central into parts of southern GA.=20=20

Considerable low to mid-level cloud cover is evident on
visible-satellite imagery across the coastal plain from MS into
southwest GA. The cloud cover will act to retard stronger
destabilization across the discussion area. However, speed shear in
the 925-500 mb layer will promote some storm organization mainly in
the form of line segments. Damaging gusts with the stronger storms
appear to be the primary hazard through midday, although a low risk
for a brief tornado may materialize if storms can become more
organized than currently anticipated. Will monitor convective
trends over the next few hours for the possibility of a convective
watch.

..Smith/Edwards.. 03/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-4_EL4ebLmmCH3ZWPdb9tctDLBOOqLH7hHeJ2-w-AI8Z3qAb8jKbYuw1X5rA4uSYQcpwA3ONG= Ws3Qz9LKI4BUNedF5U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31408914 31578717 31968596 32668444 32458338 31938307
31128352 30568407 30518622 30468930 30758958 31408914=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 221010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221009=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-221215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Areas affected...Coastal southeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221009Z - 221215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An organized but elevated QLCS should continue eastward
across the rest of southeast LA through mid-morning. The tail end of
the line segment along the immediate coast will have the best chance
to produce strong gusts from 45-60 mph and marginally severe hail of 0.75-1.25".

DISCUSSION...A longer-lived MCS with a history of embedded bowing
structures has largely evolved into more of a north/south-oriented
short-line segment across south-central LA and the adjacent
nearshore waters. A pronounced rear-inflow jet is evident in the
time-series of LCH VWP data, and this line segment should remain
organized as it progresses east across southeast LA. Peak measured
wind gusts have ranged from 45-50 mph, as the elevated character of
the line segment has mitigated severe gusts at the surface. With the
line paralleling the MUCAPE gradient, convection closer to the
immediate coast will have the best chance to become marginally
severe. The offshore surface warm front should continue to drift
north, but it does not appear it will advance inland fast enough
relative to the line's forward speed, outside of possibly
Plaquemines Parish.

..Grams/Edwards.. 03/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8L1hH2aXOtsWkQiFXBVu1hA7NDgOZ9rso0u-u3UxU-Dkk79AGYHD6yK-O_xWocOGrukWCC7nX= NkP4mQosDCjZXHyRpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29929171 29969092 30078997 30298929 30378875 30248844
29798849 29078880 28908918 28838954 28869006 28889124
29159181 29929171=20


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