• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0271

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 11 16:09:30 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 111609
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111608=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-112015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0271
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1008 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

    Areas affected...Northeast ND...northern/central MN

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 111608Z - 112015Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates up to 1" per hour are possible
    from northeast ND into northern/central MN over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone is currently
    centered near the MT/ND border vicinity, with its warm conveyor
    arcing from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest and back into
    the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Expectation is for this cyclone to
    continue eastward today, while continuing to occlude. As it does,
    strong ascent will persist along and north of the
    northeastward-progressing dry slot, contributing to a band of a
    heavy snow from northeast ND southeastward across MN. This band is
    expected to move northeastward quickly, with snowfall rates around
    1" per hour possible for an hour or two within the heaviest portions
    of the band.

    ..Mosier.. 03/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Kd1d3YCeAeA5od9zDqMgqv8FBGcqXOPFaEbi6sJ_vQznJtnwPU1EP66r1CD-zNkQCbS526Tv= M9PbV3in2XAqhs907g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46889667 47639792 48289852 48739831 48579644 48209514
    47579396 47079326 46759300 46189294 45939440 46889667=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 20 20:00:38 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 202000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201959=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-202200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0271
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0259 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle into
    Northwestern/North-Central OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201959Z - 202200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated instance of hail and/or damaging gusts are
    possible this afternoon and evening from the northeastern Texas
    Panhandle into northwest/north-central Oklahoma. A landspout or two
    is also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over the the
    northwest TX (over the AMA to BPC vicinity). Leading edge of the
    cold front, indicated by weak surface troughing, extends
    east-northeastward from this low into northwest OK and then more
    eastward into north-central OK. Cumulus has been deepening along
    this boundary for the past few hours with thunderstorm initiation
    realized about 30 to 45 mins ago. Despite only modest buoyancy,
    these storms have steadily deepened, with echo tops now over 30kft.
    This general trend is expected to persist as convergence persists
    along the surface trough and the atmosphere continues to
    destabilize.

    Overall storm depth and severity will be mitigated by the limited
    buoyancy, but an isolated updraft or two may briefly by strong
    enough to produce hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and high storm
    bases also suggest the potential for damaging gusts as storms
    collapse. Lastly, given the sharp backing of the wind field near the
    surface trough, from southerly south of the boundary to
    northeasterly just north of it, notable surface vorticity is likely
    present along and just north of the boundary. Consequently, the
    environment supports the potential for a brief landspout or two.

    ..Mosier.. 03/20/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4K2bqLLzEV7i6nvcx0Mm83k05DOctHsPipt4yS_-r7XLXZQL5qNTRczdkAQRAjM_mXJOqU_dp= VvTMXlReoEo_Pk1vII$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35990067 36440009 36639894 36589739 36169732 35699789
    35569839 35449879 35289930 35169980 35170037 35490067
    35990067=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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