• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0264

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 10 17:27:54 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 101727
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101727=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-102000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0264
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1127 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

    Areas affected...southern Georgia...northern Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101727Z - 102000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development probably will continue to
    increase across the Georgia/Florida state border vicinity through
    3-4 PM EST, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and locally
    strong wind gusts. Due to the marginal and relatively short-lived
    nature of the severe weather threat, a severe weather watch is not
    anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced surface front across southern
    Georgia (spreading through the Savannah and Albany vicinities at
    17Z), and surface cold front trailing to the west-southwest, appear
    likely to advance into and across the Georgia/Florida border
    vicinity through 20-21Z. As this occurs, deeper boundary-layer
    moisture (characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg), still
    generally centered over the Florida Panhandle vicinity, will tend to
    advect eastward across the remainder of northern Florida. This destabilization, coupled with the frontal forcing and perhaps weak
    mid-level cooling, may support a corridor of intensifying
    thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong, generally
    unidirectional deep-layer shear.

    At least attempts at sustained, discrete thunderstorm development
    are already underway across the Panhandle, particularly near the
    state border vicinity to the north of Tallahassee. It is possible
    that one or two of these storms could intensify further and pose a
    risk for producing marginally severe hail. Otherwise, the forcing
    near/just ahead of the frontal zone is expected to provide the
    primary focus for intensifying thunderstorms. These may initially
    be accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail, then some risk
    for a few strong surface gusts as activity grows upscale, before
    tending to be undercut by the southward advancing front later this
    afternoon.

    ..Kerr/Smith.. 03/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-knPq3YrO9cDX-nCUnki4_tdjSgQxWD_PgqPZZm7d26UVIfkbkz3KE9IwZchbW9WmRLiL6dNh= JOCHYu7lJoUt1fXkTA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31068552 31198443 31268361 31348252 31118147 30208132
    30218391 30228501 30568577 31068552=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 16 00:23:16 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 160023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160022=20
    TXZ000-160215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0264
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0722 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

    Areas affected...Southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...

    Valid 160022Z - 160215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a several more
    hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.
    Weather watch issuance will likely be needed to replace WW 54.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar from Laughlin Air Force Base shows a
    cluster of widely spaced severe storms in the vicinity of the Rio
    Grande River, near and to the south of Eagle Pass and to the
    south-southwest of Laredo. These storms are developing to the east
    of an axis of moderate to strong instability, where the RAP has
    MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Strong surface heating, weak
    large-scale ascent and low-level convergence will likely continue to
    support continued convective development for several more hours this
    evening. The instability along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
    8 C/km, and 55 knots of 0-6 km shear, evident on the Del Rio WSR-88
    VWP, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones
    near 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of
    cells. Wind damage will also be possible.

    ..Broyles.. 03/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PzdZaWfovfzWt3EI8zKpTgmoDuq8UP6JunvREGlrC6mw-e9JBOiWUXiPaksv24VbpFoV7px1= XCOnuVHM2XYZPrHCQk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

    LAT...LON 27149872 26969915 27059945 27629974 28430049 29110074
    29380002 29069884 28009830 27409849 27149872=20


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