• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0263

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 9 23:16:18 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 092316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092315=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0263
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0515 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...far southeast OK...far
    southwest AR...and far northwest LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092315Z - 100045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Convection is ongoing near the surface stationary front
    south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, which may produce some
    marginally-severe hail and a few damaging gusts. A watch is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A small line of convection has developed near a surface
    stationary boundary draped across north central and northeast Texas
    this afternoon. South of the boundary, temperatures have warmed to
    near 80F with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Per mesoanalysis and a
    modified ACARS profile from KDAL, this results in MLCAPE near 1200
    J/kg. Hodographs are largely straight, with effective bulk shear
    near 40 kts and relatively weak low-level flow.

    Expect a few marginally severe hail reports given the straight
    hodographs and modest deep-layer shear. There may be a few damaging
    gust reports as well, but the relatively moist environment and
    relatively weak low-level flow may limit the damaging gust
    potential. Expect convection to continue and move to the
    east-northeast along the boundary as the evening continues. A
    weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

    ..Supinie/Hart.. 03/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6S8WcT_8hX3fwxdBnvi8X7zfPVMyAyd1vUGywLWbOxMabKxkPSaiWvaMOWN5HqBHwef6nwoZB= beCH6wo4y4PdKEpVls$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31449767 31869824 32169831 32709795 33119726 33339687
    33609629 33879565 34069515 34199473 34099427 33909384
    33609355 33269343 32759354 32399381 32089454 31719600
    31449693 31449767=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 15 23:05:45 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 152305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152305=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-160100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0263
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0605 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...

    Valid 152305Z - 160100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
    southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana for a couple more hours.
    Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the main threats. The
    severe threat may spread eastward further into southwest Louisiana,
    but is expected to be too marginal for additional weather watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Houston
    shows a cluster of strong thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana
    state line, with additional more discrete storms to the southwest of
    Houston. The storms are located along the eastern edge of a
    moderately unstable airmass where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to
    2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Houston and Lake
    Charles have 0-6 km shear generally in the 55 to 65 knot range. This environment should support a severe threat for a couple more hours,
    with a potential for wind damage and isolated large hail. On radar,
    an outflow boundary is moving southward off the coast of southwest
    Louisiana. The airmass behind the boundary is more stable. As the
    stronger cells move eastward into this relatively weak instability
    across southwest Louisiana, the severe threat is expected to become
    marginal. For this reason, watch issuance is not planned to the east
    of WW 54.

    ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8q_N7KBb_ST5UKH5fF_sa_Lt_P99GJNgfDQfNvv8ocuLwCye7bzSDENrJsUXWaDd7iXlJzMDR= dPSy5T6a2XUBMtGHwE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

    LAT...LON 30419530 30759385 30729304 30449271 30079276 29809298
    29769337 29759408 29309496 28979547 28809597 28819640
    29029669 29359686 29709673 30019629 30419530=20


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