ACUS11 KWNS 091942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091942=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2023

Areas affected...central to southern AL and portions of eastern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091942Z - 092215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a stationary front in
central AL. These storms may pose a threat for localized small to
marginally severe hail, but a WW is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A couple of sustained, deep updrafts have formed in
west-central AL along a stationary front during the last 30-60 min.
Visible imagery suggests that a north-south convergence band --
evidenced by more congested localized Cu -- may be associated with
this convection initiation. Nearby surface stations on the warm side
of the front are observing lower 70s F temperatures and dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s F. This would support MLCAPE values of around
500-1000 J/kg with the potential for surface-based convection. While
minimal veering shear exists in the warm sector, current surface
objective analysis and the KMXX VWP suggest local effective SRH
values of up to 50-100 J/kg may be present. This low-level shear
profile, along with larger cloud-layer shear around 60 kts, could
support somewhat persistent updrafts along with a threat for
marginally severe hail and wind gusts, but a WW is not expected.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 03/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4EF9YxGgSgl2GROVBdkX5Nf6G0BCasER0LqQLxb9KZs-hx6c76ToBsz-fZev9pUfNs3-0wWGQ= qMFUNcn63nLqLn93nI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31448798 32038869 32818884 33278845 33278755 32878669
32258624 31608638 31338713 31448798=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 152055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152054=20
TXZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...

Valid 152054Z - 152230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 54. Large to very large hail remains the primary concern.

DISCUSSION...Supercell clusters continue to evolve/intensify between
San Antonio and Houston TX this afternoon, generally focused along
the outflow-modified cold front draped across the area. The
environment remains favorable for large to very large hail
production (possibly increasing to near 2 to 3-inch diameter) with
these supercells, given fairly weak sub-freezing level
shear/buoyancy and favorable instability and cloud-layer shear
through the hail-growth zone. So far, 1.75 inch hail and wind damage
has been reported with this activity. In addition to the large-hail
risk, severe-gust potential should also increase owing to localized
upscale growth into larger supercell clusters and bowing segments.
However, the increasing storm coverage could also lead to
destructive interference with time, especially northwest of the
Houston area.=20

Farther west, two discrete supercells are ongoing west-northwest of
Eagle Pass TX (across the International border). While these storms
are largely anchored to the higher terrain, east-southeast
right-mover and north-northeast left-mover storm motion vectors
could allow this activity to spread across the border with time.
Continued pre-convective heating/destabilization amid favorable
vertical shear should support the maintenance of this activity into
TX, with the primary risk being very large hail.

..Weinman.. 03/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4gM69ECHwvMX43gclsmxOI__hbNcvpfOm1zz04Zb7tzeIkKSZdULnqzy76tMzuL8v2GgoFe7m= 6XWzvyGfojoD2g0YAQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28560016 28540053 28840076 29190089 29580077 29860045
29920018 29629956 29549891 29659810 30339688 30569630
30579582 30509448 30139419 29849426 29069567 28849637
28729742 28739804 28899871 28859942 28560016=20


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