• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0242

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 3 10:02:34 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031001=20 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0242
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0401 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern MS/AL...western into Middle
    TN...western KY...far southeast MO...and far southern IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 031001Z - 031230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 13-14z/7-8 am
    CST across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys.
    Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through
    midday/early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary boundary is evident in surface
    analysis extending from west-central TN toward the TN/KY border
    vicinity north of Nashville. Meanwhile, the warm front, demarcating
    mid-60s F surface dewpoints from upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints,
    is arcing from near Memphis into east-central MS (between Starkville
    and Tupelo) and central AL. Large-scale ascent ejecting into east
    TX, as the mid/upper trough becomes more negatively tilted as of
    10z, will aid in deepening of the surface low over central AR as it
    tracks northeast toward the Lower OH Valley through midday. As this
    occurs, the warm front will lift northward, allowing for
    destabilization of the airmass downstream from WW 59 across parts of
    northern MS into western and Middle TN, and eventually northward
    toward the lower OH River.=20

    Ongoing precipitation across parts of western/Middle TN/southeast
    MO/western KY and vicinity lends to some uncertainty with respect to
    the northern extent of severe potential through the morning, and
    possible watch issuance. While a relative minimum in severe activity
    may exist in the short term, as the warm front surges northward
    through mid-morning, forecast soundings in addition to CAMs and
    deterministic guidance suggest organized convection will develop
    northeast from near the MS River through western KY.

    Where the more moist and unstable airmass evolves, sufficient
    low-level instability, in the presence of intense low-level shear
    (aided by a 50-60 kt 850 mb jet), will support organized linear
    convection with perhaps embedded or semi-discrete cells. Damaging
    gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity
    through midday/early afternoon. A downstream watch will likely be
    needed by around 13z-14z.

    ..Leitman/Edwards.. 03/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7P7JB_BEycPJQAuBWoHl46KlOpk7XQW6FZ1laNcCNUQhIBIdFBfsKviyff8xbnxoKLtzTqjnZ= UBi5ALH46RIhTpeUIo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 36008974 36938956 37368926 37688873 37868807 37918734
    37868678 37748655 37208638 36328636 35068661 34518683
    34178714 33848781 33598840 33638940 33788978 34038992
    36008974=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 23:26:24 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 142326
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142325=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-150100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0242
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Ohio into
    northwestern West Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142325Z - 150100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Discrete storms have tried to initiate in southwestern
    Ohio into northern Kentucky. Additional organized storms will
    eventually reach the upper Ohio Valley later this evening. The need
    for a watch is quite uncertain in the short term, but convective
    trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have attempted to initiate in southwestern Ohio
    into northern Kentucky. While it is not clear whether this activity
    will mature, regional VAD profiles suggest that these storms would
    be capable of large hail and tornadoes. Later in the evening, storms
    currently in southern Illinois into central Indiana will likely
    reach the upper Ohio Valley. An airmass supportive of severe storms
    continues to try and work eastward. There is at least some
    possibility that an organized line will reach these areas and
    require a downstream watch. However, uncertainty remains too high to
    issue one at this time. Convective trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8mKCMCXLiuqxA6RbENvq7ji_43X70ZsWxxjl3oCsqU4wBtNcAGTaseUcogflb9ifZz0AEkGAu= GiXynOKK8k6Iq5nTPM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 38828436 39058430 39198403 39208366 39358254 39698196
    40018202 40608207 40978188 41178122 40838064 39578052
    39018091 38318255 38478332 38828436=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)