ACUS11 KWNS 030055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030054=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

Valid 030054Z - 030230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe/isolated tornado potential continues locally,
and will increase later on tonight.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that isolated small/rotating
storms have diminished in coverage to some degree over the past
hour, with the strongest storm at this time approaching the
northwestern corner of the watch from southeastern Oklahoma.=20
Farther south toward Texarkana and Shreveport, earlier
small/rotating cells have decreased in both coverage and intensity,
and this is resulting in an overall lull in ongoing severe weather.

However, local severe risk lingers across the area, and is forecast
to increase substantially with time, particularly toward/after
midnight as the main upper system -- currently crossing the
southeastern corner of New Mexico -- progresses across Texas and
gradually assumes negative tilt with time. This increase in ascent
-- reflected by anticipated surface cyclogenesis over the
northeastern Texas/southeastern Oklahoma vicinity -- will result in
an increasingly favorable overall environment for significant severe
storms.

..Goss.. 03/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6L_Dj_gODYlgJAw96Ptc7lHrRZgNlei_MJ481xspC2sZDlLe3UfG3O6bXjuWvELYn_nnNJlU-= kOV7xwn5cRjZzkDjB4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 32839328 33019390 33699447 34759452 34859355 34659135
34139172 33169240 32839328=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 142016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142016=20
MSZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142016Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind risk may exist with any
thunderstorms that can develop. Watch issuance is not expected in
the short term.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have recently formed across
southeast MS, on the eastern edge of the unstable warm sector across
the lower MS Valley. Additional convective development appears
possible over the next couple of hours across parts of central into
northern MS where the cu field is gradually becoming more agitated
in some locations. Large-scale forcing across this region remains
fairly weak, but a weak southern-stream shortwave trough should
continue to advance northeastward across LA/MS this afternoon, which
may encourage additional development. Recent VWPs from KDGX/KGWX
show weak low-level southerly flow gradually veering and
strengthening with height through mid levels, with deep-layer shear
generally 25-35 kt (stronger with northward extent in MS). This
should be sufficient for modest updraft organization and possible
clustering with time. Occasional strong to damaging winds of 50-60
mph may occur with the more robust cores, and perhaps marginally
severe hail. Given that the overall severe threat will likely remain
quite isolated this afternoon, watch issuance is not expected in the
short term.

..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_LWUxL5AIQaxkmpC-UfDsY8se1iYpbW2Wt5e0tsgh5AuPoOyeibP322wjFovBYplHsFgGrWge= TQGeJzWeZwzGE-jPIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32278855 31418886 31038952 31009019 31179075 32039093
33419063 34339021 34668972 34678913 34348851 33708827
32278855=20


=3D =3D =3D
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