• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0232

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 2 23:10:56 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 022310
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022310=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0232
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

    Areas affected...northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...southern Arkansas...northern Louisiana and northwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...

    Valid 022310Z - 030115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather, including tornadoes,
    continues across watch 55, and a new Tornado Watch will also likely
    be needed farther east across southern Arkansas and northern
    Louisiana by 01z.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar at 23z shows supercell thunderstorms,
    occasionally exhibiting low-level rotation along the Red River west
    of Hugo, OK and also across far northeast TX east of Longview. A
    tornado was recently reported with an earlier storm in Hopkins
    County, TX. These severe storms were located near and just south of
    an east-west surface boundary that extended from north of the DFW
    Metroplex across southern Arkansas.

    Latest surface mesoanalysis and recent KSHV VAD data show a very
    favorable kinematic environment for supercells, with ample
    deep-layer shear in excess of 65 kts, and 0-3 km SRH of 400-500
    m2/s2. Low-level flow will continue to strengthen and back as
    intensifying surface low pressure moves northeast across east TX
    this evening, further supporting a supercell threat with all severe
    hazards possible, including the risk for a strong tornado.

    Latest observational trends and short-term hi-res guidance suggests
    that a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed prior to 00z.

    ..Bunting/Gleason.. 03/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_gVMjmAlQdTJDoha6m0L-EWauAkRCgf-uKxnAKIOdmWhUnioEFY0iXnl3W5xSfo4xRVbLLaIb= D7k_d3U8uA_FhEAxY8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 32469358 32259439 32419524 32769555 33439601 33889603
    34259523 34419402 34489241 34539169 34289119 33659059
    32889104 32579257 32469358=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 17:59:20 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 141759
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141758=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-141930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0232
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...parts of far southeast KS...northwest AR...MO and
    western IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 141758Z - 141930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm development appears likely early this afternoon
    across a broad warm sector with multiple boundaries. Supercells
    capable of all hazards appear likely given sufficient shear and
    buoyancy. A WW is likely in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...Early afternoon visible imagery showed a broad cumulus
    field becoming progressively more agitated east of a slow-moving
    cold front across parts of far southeastern KS, northwest AR and
    southwestern MO. Multiple modifying outflow/differential heating
    boundaries lie across the warm sector and near the front as observed
    by area ME TARS. Strong diurnal heating is ongoing and expected to
    continue modifying the air mass across the warm sector and along
    these boundaries. With the ongoing heating, surface dewpoints in the
    low to mid 60s F are supporting 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
    minimal CINH remaining. Area model soundings and VAD wind profiles
    indicate moderate to strong effective shear of 45-55 kt supportive
    of storm organization. While low-level flow is somewhat veered,
    supercell wind profiles are in place and subtle forcing for ascent
    will favor a more cellular mode, at least initially. Steep lapse
    rates, moderate buoyancy and favorable shear will support a risk for
    all hazards, especially significant hail, with storms able to
    develop.

    Hi-res CAM and experimental WOFS guidance solutions show storm
    development along the front, across the outflow/differential heating
    axis, and within the warm-sector across northwestern AR are all
    possible early this afternoon. While an initially discrete storm
    mode is expected, additional development southwest, and numerous
    storm interactions appear likely. Upscale growth into multiple
    clusters with supercell and short bowing segment structures will
    support multiple severe hazards. Given the increasing severe risk a
    new Tornado Watch is likely within the next hour.

    ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5PTmAQG2dv6aj6aBRi2dVno1nHcpLh20zWMLmjQYZZ5SSIhp0bSdj_FTYjy1rBzJzUXWutNlp= s0GWWALqUysRyaPCl8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 36599075 36129233 35489380 35509419 35699451 36029466
    36679484 37199517 37509517 37749512 38049496 38519464
    39019421 39289368 39739236 40039066 40049037 39598950
    39148912 38748897 38388890 37788888 37278906 37118935
    36828999 36599075=20


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