• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0231

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 2 22:51:58 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 022251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022251=20
    TXZ000-022345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0231
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

    Areas affected...portions of south TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 022251Z - 022345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are developing southward along a cold
    front into portions of south TX. These storms may pose a threat for
    very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado as they
    progress eastward this afternoon and evening. A southern WW
    extension and downstream WW issuance may be necessary soon.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is developing
    southward along a cold front through central TX. Damaging wind gusts
    and large (1-2 inch) hail are expected to be the primary threats
    with these storms, as referenced in WW 54 and MCD 230, before they
    move into an environment more supportive of tornado production in WW
    55.

    Further south, strong frontal convection has developed in Edwards
    County, with additional pre-frontal convection initiation attempts
    evident to the southeast in Edwards and Kinney counties. These
    updrafts are forming in a region characterized by a kinematic
    profile supportive of sustained severe storms (0-3-km SRH of 200+
    J/kg). Some MLCIN remains, as supported by 23z RAP profiles and a
    dearth of boundary-layer convective rolls. However, the local
    environment is expected to steadily improve as these storms
    propagate eastward. This is reflected in latest high-resolution
    model guidance depicting gradual storm intensification in this
    region during the next couple of hours. These storms will pose a
    threat for large, damaging hail, strong wind gusts, and perhaps a
    tornado or two, and a downstream WW is likely in the short term.

    ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 03/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6vkXK-01RSCNr87KXI1hemtuwS329zGqo5s-5krBu6CjKaz2ttI13hoORsa4q0sHUdV8eoYMg= g8xmAk1qqmTARtDiJE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30249995 30809951 31039871 30849787 30199734 29099774
    28659883 28989974 29710017 30249995=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 16:55:20 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 141655
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141655=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-141800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0231
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...parts if eastern IN...western and central Ohio and
    far northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41...

    Valid 141655Z - 141800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk across WW41 continues. Some downstream
    local extension is possible in the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1650 UTC, a well-developed squall line was
    ongoing across eastern IN nearing the OH border. These storms have
    produced numerous reports of small hail and occasional strong gusts
    over the last couple of hours. The line of storms should continue
    eastward crossing into OH within the next hour and remain capable of
    isolated severe gusts. Ahead of the line, drier air is in place and
    buoyancy decreases quickly across central OH. As the line begins to
    enter the more stable air later this afternoon a gradual downtrend
    in convective intensity is likely. Still, the line has remained well
    organized thus far and is likely capable of damaging gusts and small
    hail. With this in mind, the eastern extent of the severe risk
    remains somewhat unclear. As the line moves into OH, a local
    extension of WW41 may be needed across parts of central OH before it
    weakens further.

    ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Ze5MlV3fehjrKpeRDJoG6ilPKlLisGjJSNLxfM-eXIIZIPbdcD3-RAgDpnSUvDlhPbBZK3_f= L2hl5SdEki6eSzB538$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 39588598 40818527 41378469 41528397 41468364 41068331
    40498318 39888322 39448329 39058354 38728410 38388481
    38268525 38178579 38108640 38148670 38318692 38638688
    39588598=20


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