1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0228

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 2 19:02:22 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021902
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021901=20
    TXZ000-022130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0228
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0101 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

    Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 021901Z - 022130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop ahead of the surface
    low and extending southward along a dryline and approaching cold
    front. Damaging hail and wind will be possible. A tornado could
    occur along the stationary/warm front.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists ahead of the surface low and
    dryline, with CU fields clearly indicating an uncapped air mass. A
    storm has already formed in Glasscock and Reagan Counties along the
    dryline.=20

    Southeasterly winds are supporting the advection of moisture, and
    MLCAPE will continue to increase. Further, cooling aloft will
    overspread the area, steepening midlevel lapse rates. Strong
    deep-layer shear will favor long-lived, forward-tilting hail storms.
    Damaging outflow winds will also be possible, especially with any
    storms that ride along the stationary/warm front extending
    east/northeast from the low. Here, a tornado or two will also be
    possible as low-level shear and lift are maximized. This may also
    become a favored corridor for damaging winds.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2CoN4CfQ0MBUbq5KWnJKbqqlmE8bktXTpec0IEXP76f1C3xySGJSDxNL7t9NVfrFuco9pH5J= nUBSQeTTI3h5C09COk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31189896 30609920 30299958 30370094 30600112 31360093
    32750046 33120031 33379988 33379916 33299895 32969880
    32199879 31629885 31189896=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 12:39:46 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 141239
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141239=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-141445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0228
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0739 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...East-central MO into central/southern IL and
    western IN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39...40...

    Valid 141239Z - 141445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39, 40
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado
    may spread eastward through the morning.

    DISCUSSION...Radar trends and cooling cloud-top temperatures from IR
    imagery suggest some increase in convective vigor across
    east-central MO into adjacent western IL within the last hour, with
    a 47 kt measured gust recently noted west of St. Louis. Some uptick
    in storm organization remains possible later this morning, as
    continued low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating
    allow for some downstream destabilization within a favorably sheared environment. Such an uptick would likely be accompanied by an
    increase in damaging-wind potential, especially near/south of a warm
    front draped from west-central IL into northwest IN. Strong
    low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH of greater than 250 m2/s2)
    could also support a brief line-embedded tornado.=20

    With some potential for ongoing storms to intensify as they approach
    western IN, and also build southward toward parts of the OH Valley,
    additional watch issuance may be needed later this morning, though
    the timing and areal extent of any new watch remain uncertain at
    this time.

    ..Dean/Edwards.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!43cS6Kd1o8vQFGf_9Ck8rjPcMLhLXKh9Nb9B_yNOCoY5F5yTdY_qA__qrBF54Si0s5TfhLWBq= Hg-3cNVz4h6qhaaKh4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39849034 40648870 40998796 41028676 40358633 39588637
    39078646 38638650 38348674 38278734 38188875 38288979
    38289073 38339079 38549077 38759072 38969066 39849034=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)