• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0227

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 2 18:54:23 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021854
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021853=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0227
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

    Areas affected...far Northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
    Kansas...southern Missouri...and northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021853Z - 022000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail risk will continue over the next
    couple of hours. Watch issuance unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of elevated thunderstorms continues to
    move northeastward across portions of far northeastern Oklahoma and
    northern Arkansas into far southeastern Kansas and southern
    Missouri. A few cells have posed a brief severe hail risk. Storms
    are generally located along a gradient of MUCAPE around 500-1000
    J/kg. Objective analysis shows instability slowly increasing to the
    north in the last hour. Sounding analysis from RAP forecast
    soundings across northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas reveal
    a stable ground layer with instability aloft largely located above
    850 mb. VAD profiles from INX and SGX show favorable deep layer
    shear around 70 kts. Given the shear and thermodynamic profiles,
    these storms will likely remain elevated, supporting a risk of
    severe hail up to 1-1.5 inch before moving into a cooler and drier
    air mass to the north. As such, watch issuance is unlikely needed.

    ..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8GUYmnlHNN_kSL6xm6ll5rkETxmQOD44axhb6Xum02kBpGmQMrm7cddlJQdRhLoo8_SLMp6kg= Z-uuzw7GiLSBtEhgyw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 36829619 37139596 37549512 37719445 37739400 37709334
    37549277 37249188 37139160 36849139 36079162 35749205
    35669253 36439391 36389498 36249582 36369626 36369626
    36829619=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 10:35:44 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 141035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141035=20
    ILZ000-141200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0227
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0535 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of central IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39...40...

    Valid 141035Z - 141200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39, 40
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts remain possible this
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...A small MCS is moving across western IL early this
    morning, with recent reports of severe gusts in McDonough County. An
    embedded mesovortex recently developed in Knox County, IL, in
    relatively close proximity to an outflow boundary and also the
    synoptic warm front. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (greater with southern
    extent) and strong deep-layer shear (as noted on the KILX VWP) will
    continue to support organized convection through the early morning.
    While the northern part of the MCS and related MCV will continue
    moving into a relatively cool/stable environment across northern IL,
    some short-term threat for localized strong/damaging gusts may
    persist, especially near/south of the warm front. Stronger updrafts
    along the leading edge of the cold pool could also pose a transient
    hail threat. Finally, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the
    intersection of the leading outflow and warm front, though lingering
    low-level stability may temper this threat to some extent.

    ..Dean.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!62CnonRj4HZRVM5EULv1siMf81nk2oSW3jlFJnk7bz6DgQAh9C7asD4-vb9Risp9_tnd8Iv4w= OF-V4QOGYJU0MRUA4Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 41028804 40448769 39878799 39538929 39539007 39559034
    39699046 40039018 40288991 40698977 41028981 41058962
    41028804=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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