ACUS11 KWNS 012327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012327=20
TXZ000-020130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...Central/Northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012327Z - 020130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this
evening from central into northeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...Surface front has stalled across TX early this evening,
currently extending from Paris-Terrell-LLano. Despite extensive
cloudiness, boundary-layer heating has contributed to steeper
low-level lapse rates across south-central TX. This has sufficiently
weakened the cap along the boundary such that a lone thunderstorm
has recently evolved over Burnet County. While 12z model guidance
suggests a subtle mid-level speed max may be ejecting across this
region at this time, it's not apparent any meaningful short wave is
associated with this feature. Additionally, stronger low-level warm
advection is focused from the Arklatex downstream into the mid South
region where more concentrated convection is currently noted.
Despite modest buoyancy, forecast soundings suggest updrafts may
continue to struggle due to capping.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!94fADpjXczCre0X_Xw1sm-KrgUkvb9RtNQm7pPQU5popgDBhDgs3WPryEhGX6AxlBrNUTO-ox= gJik1vf20KlPJg45zo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30599846 31669767 33209584 32359510 30429776 30599846=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 130334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130334=20
MOZ000-130500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Areas affected...parts of west central missouri and southwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130334Z - 130500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe
hail remains possible, but appears likely to generally diminish
through 11 PM-Midnight.

DISCUSSION...Near the western periphery of the modestly
strengthening and slowly veering southerly low-level jet, stronger
ascent associated with low-level warm advection and inflow of better
low-level moisture remain focused on the western flank of the
upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms, east of the Greater Kansas
City area. Similar forcing and stronger convective layer shear may
also be maintaining the more isolated cell now to the east-southeast
of Joplin, with the strongest storms still accompanied by a
continuing risk for severe hail based on latest MRMS data. However,
warming farther aloft is slowly underway across much of western
Missouri, as the the mid-level short wave trough and associated cold
core progress east-southeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley.
It appears that this will contribute to substantive weakening of
convection and diminishing hail potential through 04-06Z.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4_mEiKQtf-3vReZr9tk4jFsKNnodG9fH9-tVLH-byKQR8Tf7qFfNfwPojKY08GkRfCv2L7HK7= j37og4FgFaoOcHZljA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38909404 39379413 39359344 38859318 38459345 37959363
37559377 36819385 36979435 37309408 38369376 38909404=20


=3D =3D =3D
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