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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0202

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Feb 27 10:18:04 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 271017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271017=20
    CAZ000-271515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0417 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

    Areas affected...northern California

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 271017Z - 271515Z

    SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy precipitation is expected to
    continue to develop and spread inland across the Klamath Mountains
    and northern Coastal Ranges, perhaps portions of the northern Sierra
    Nevada, with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour by 5-10 AM PST, if
    not a bit earlier.

    DISCUSSION...As another cold mid-level trough (including 500 mb
    temps near or below -35 C) digs into the northern Pacific coast,
    forcing for ascent along a frontal zone associated with an occluded
    offshore cyclone has recently supported intensifying convective
    development with embedded thunderstorms approaching the southern Oregon/northern California coast. Although it is not clear if
    destabilization aided by cooling aloft will maintain thunderstorm
    development, the remnant band of convection is forecast to gradually
    spread inland of coastal areas, across the Klamath Mountains and
    northern Coastal Ranges, perhaps portions of the northern Sierra
    Nevada, by the 13-17Z time frame, if not before.

    Coincident with this band of convection, forecast soundings indicate
    lift becoming maximized in the cold mid-level layers (around -15 C)
    most conducive to dendritic ice crystal growth. Coupled with
    orographic forcing aided by modest (30-40 kt) south-southwesterly
    upslope flow, heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2+ inches per hour
    appear likely for at least a few hours this morning, with snow
    levels perhaps falling below 2000 feet.

    ..Kerr.. 02/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fcqfWbyhs5FItoWh3TDofgfBVaWBaZ9OYIn7u9hrsPZ-JAhG9Qwapa05hVXbdLaPdpm_dTHX= jYbCph6ltdCUTfPFe4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...EKA...

    LAT...LON 40492372 41762339 41782266 41722211 41222138 40522136
    40652207 40092275 38822277 40492372=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 8 03:04:16 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 080304
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080303=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-080400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0903 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

    Areas affected...Southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31...

    Valid 080303Z - 080400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered convection will linger across mainly the
    northern/central portions of ww31 this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Surface front is gradually advancing south across the
    southern High Plains this evening but convection has not developed
    along this boundary to any degree across northwest OK. Most robust
    convection has gradually weakened, partially due to weaker buoyancy
    due to onset of nocturnal cooling. Additionally, 1km AGL flow has
    gradually veered and this is not particularly advantageous given the
    decreasing instability. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited steep lapse
    rates, but PW values are seasonally low around 3/4". With
    boundary-layer decoupling it may become increasingly difficult to
    maintain organized severe updrafts. While an isolated hail report
    can not be ruled out, overall trends suggest severe threat will
    remain marginal from this point forward.

    ..Darrow.. 03/08/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5DEPm5BOg0WGVQwxyq9hFoJtlUqP33UqOcVgRfGLTCLEURZpOSyTOXaM3DlC_wVCKPWt2ieSa= 3VdWp1YfSDCoN8zFNw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31070142 36979900 36989700 31079956 31070142=20


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