ACUS11 KWNS 270744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270743=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-270845-
Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023
Areas affected...much of Missouri and adjacent portions of southeast Iowa...western Illinois...northern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 270743Z - 270845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms overspreading the region will
continue pose a risk for at least localized severe wind gusts
through the night. While the sporadic nature of this threat
probably will preclude a severe weather watch issuance, trends will
continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...An intense, cyclonic mid-level jet (110+ kt around 500
mb) is forecast to continue rapidly propagating east-northeastward
into and through the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Strengthening
subsidence to the south and southwest of the speed maximum is now
suppressing deep convective development to the southwest (roughly)
of the Missouri/Kansas/Arkansas border vicinity. Pre-cold frontal
lightning producing convection is being maintained on the leading
edge of the large-scale mid-level ascent/cold core, which is
forecast to rapidly spread across much Missouri and parts of
adjacent Iowa and Arkansas into western Illinois through 11-12Z.
While the boundary-layer across much of this region remains only
modestly moist (rising through the 50s F), beneath a northeastward
advecting warm layer around the 700 mb level, models do indicate
some further moistening within the warm sector of the deep occluding
cyclone is possible prior to the arrival of the cold front. Based
on latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, strong forcing through
the capping layer may continue to yield very weak boundary-layer destabilization just ahead of the convective line. It is not clear
that this will be able to support much in the way of substantive intensification from what is ongoing now. However, given the
intense nature of the mean lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields within
which the convection is embedded (greater than 60 kt in the lowest
60 km AGL), the heavier precipitation cores probably will continue
to aid the downward transfer of potentially damaging gusts to the
surface.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 02/27/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Woxs76MxkmnnPEeP5m_McdFfI2CYw8TUC03xzchZJAFEeDU7BHYwRcG3E9l0u91H6kngky-Z= sk_KBDeXT7_zjZyVd8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...
EAX...
LAT...LON 36739322 37549367 39789422 40689387 41139212 39478992
37118925 36429079 36739322=20
=3D =3D =3D
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