• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0201

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Feb 27 07:44:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 270744
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270743=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-270845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0201
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0143 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

    Areas affected...much of Missouri and adjacent portions of southeast Iowa...western Illinois...northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270743Z - 270845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms overspreading the region will
    continue pose a risk for at least localized severe wind gusts
    through the night. While the sporadic nature of this threat
    probably will preclude a severe weather watch issuance, trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An intense, cyclonic mid-level jet (110+ kt around 500
    mb) is forecast to continue rapidly propagating east-northeastward
    into and through the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Strengthening
    subsidence to the south and southwest of the speed maximum is now
    suppressing deep convective development to the southwest (roughly)
    of the Missouri/Kansas/Arkansas border vicinity. Pre-cold frontal
    lightning producing convection is being maintained on the leading
    edge of the large-scale mid-level ascent/cold core, which is
    forecast to rapidly spread across much Missouri and parts of
    adjacent Iowa and Arkansas into western Illinois through 11-12Z.

    While the boundary-layer across much of this region remains only
    modestly moist (rising through the 50s F), beneath a northeastward
    advecting warm layer around the 700 mb level, models do indicate
    some further moistening within the warm sector of the deep occluding
    cyclone is possible prior to the arrival of the cold front. Based
    on latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, strong forcing through
    the capping layer may continue to yield very weak boundary-layer destabilization just ahead of the convective line. It is not clear
    that this will be able to support much in the way of substantive intensification from what is ongoing now. However, given the
    intense nature of the mean lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields within
    which the convection is embedded (greater than 60 kt in the lowest
    60 km AGL), the heavier precipitation cores probably will continue
    to aid the downward transfer of potentially damaging gusts to the
    surface.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 02/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Woxs76MxkmnnPEeP5m_McdFfI2CYw8TUC03xzchZJAFEeDU7BHYwRcG3E9l0u91H6kngky-Z= sk_KBDeXT7_zjZyVd8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...
    EAX...

    LAT...LON 36739322 37549367 39789422 40689387 41139212 39478992
    37118925 36429079 36739322=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 8 00:38:14 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 080038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080037=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-080200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0201
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0637 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

    Areas affected...northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30...

    Valid 080037Z - 080200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW30. Isolated tornado
    potential near the OK/KS border.

    DISCUSSION...Storm activity is ongoing across northern Oklahoma into
    southern Kansas along an eastward advancing dry line and warm front
    draped across southern Kansas. Two supercells located along surface
    warm front have shown better organization as they move eastward into
    dew points in the upper 50s. A narrow corridor near the warm front
    may support risk of an isolated tornado before storms cross to the
    cool side of the boundary, given enhanced vorticity along the front.
    Further west along the dry line, storms will likely cluster and
    attempt to grow up scale as the cold front moves east eventually
    overtaking the dry line. The main threats will likely be wind and
    hail with the linear storm modes.

    ..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/08/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qf6DjWD_NfhgrWJanllg5Zqpr99iXCqb7_DE0FPTFAXrq4qLEA628ZYFZc0QWic8bVBobz5v= v6z1n5exHSUUwlrD2o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36509635 36609708 36809729 37279729 37479667 37549570
    37409524 37239513 37029512 36819520 36639544 36569587
    36509635=20


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