ACUS11 KWNS 270417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270417=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-270545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 44...

Valid 270417Z - 270545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging gust and tornado threat will continue across
portions of central into eastern OK the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Several severe gusts near 60-70 mph have been reported
over the past hour across central/south-central OK. Additionally, a
few mesovortex tornadoes have likely occurred with the surging
bowing segment near the OKC metro vicinity, with several other
mesovortex circulations noted in radar data across north-central OK.
Intense low-level shear and strong forcing along the
eastward-advancing cold front will continue to support damaging wind
potential. VWP data from KINX also shows an enlarged low-level
hodograph with backed surface winds somewhat orthogonal to the
bowing segment tracking toward east-central OK and the segment
tracking across north-central OK near the KS border. This should
continue to support mesovortex generation for a couple more hours.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xoNufC-DjMcrzjSr52YnjwM_fjQvCDJIzCICojJJGG71U-SMhG58vkaWXHFNCQP5Y0fbhuW4= cd0-aeuB5l11FRZqgw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36999714 36969576 36949563 36599521 36279504 35639517
35059546 34399585 34049632 33949689 33969736 34129743
34409735 35049704 35659693 36139719 36509753 36849753
36979749 36999714=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 071931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071930=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-072130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...Central and western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071930Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming
hours. These storms will initially pose a large hail threat before transitioning to primarily a severe wind threat during the evening
hours. Watch issuance is probable.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past few hours have shown
gradual moisture return into western OK ahead of a sharpening
dryline/surface trough. Although this moisture is somewhat meager
(low to mid 50 dewpoints), steep mid-level lapse rates continue to
overspread the region amid a west/southwesterly mid-level flow
regime. While MLCAPE remains very minimal at the moment, continued
low-level moisture return should result in gradually improving
buoyancy through the late afternoon and evening hours. Regardless,
ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation is
overspreading the TX Panhandle with high-based cumulus development
noted behind the dryline. This ascent is forecast to reach the warm
sector across western OK/northwest TX in the coming hours, and
recent HRRR/WOFS runs suggest initiation is likely during the 21-23
UTC period. Although convection may initially be anemic owing to the
modest buoyancy, the severe threat should steadily increase heading
into the evening hours with initially discrete cells posing a large
hail risk across northwest TX/western OK before upscale growth
favors an increasing wind threat further east into central OK. Watch
issuance is probable in the coming hours as sufficient buoyancy
becomes established to support severe convection.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7MvCKiq0g6O3pVdh1skD1bFIhUUTCs5bcIAGYVTiY6MSk0BzRxhu-kiHGDNWwv-BaDv_I0_pI= rFtG_yxDWH-v-Y0hd8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34180013 34789986 35689964 36419931 36759878 36869847
36809814 36609783 36379758 36099737 35719730 35379741
35009772 34559806 33909871 33629900 33499931 33579970
33619988 33780017 34180013=20


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