• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0194

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Feb 27 01:02:59 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 270102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270102=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0194
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0702 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central and eastern OK into southern KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 270102Z - 270300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado watch downstream from Tornado Watch 43 will be
    needed by 03z/9pm CST across portions of central/eastern Oklahoma.
    Intense swaths of damaging gusts will be possible in addition to
    tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...A line of intense severe thunderstorm and tornado
    warned cells continues to solidify and approach the OK/TX border
    this evening. Additional cells ahead of the line have already moved
    into far northwest OK. This convection will shift east around 50-55
    kt, moving outside of Tornado Watch 43 by 03z.=20

    VWP data from KTLX and KFDR show a southerly low-level jet has
    increased to 60-70 kt while southeasterly low-level winds continue
    to transport better quality moisture northward. Dewpoints in the low
    60s F are in place north of the Red River across southern OK to near
    I-40, with mid-50s F into far northern OK. This will support MUCAPE
    values around 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the line of convection. While a
    stout elevated mixed layer is in place across the warm sector,
    strong forcing along the front should diminish inhibition and
    downward transport of intense midlevel winds is expected. In
    addition to swaths of damaging gusts, enlarged low-level hodographs
    evident in the 00z OUN RAOB and in regional VWPs indicated potential
    for mesovortex/line-embedded circulations and tornadoes.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 02/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90tkkwTivHBQRhd9KBhSP6nBjsy28sCSbNhTdUzZL8DkmPPJAYCQBZOToxjW_WSDbI3NWPAJe= loVF0J-1b2xv7N_1aI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35549864 36199858 36919806 37029777 37079697 37009594
    36799554 36299543 34759569 34079598 33859666 33799742
    33889818 34089856 34619866 35549864=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 6 18:02:04 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 061801
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061801=20
    FLZ000-062000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0194
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1201 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

    Areas affected...central/southern Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061801Z - 062000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
    next couple of hours. Isolated strong storms may produce hail near a
    half inch to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds. A watch is not
    currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the southwest coast of the FL
    Peninsula have increased in intensity over the past 30 minutes or
    so. This activity is moving east along a weak differential heating
    zone created by early clouds and morning showers, and within a zone
    of weak low-level convergence. Despite scattered clouds across the central/southern Peninsula, dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to
    near 70 F and modest midlevel lapse rates has allowed MLCAPE values
    to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A 17z RAOB from MFL does
    indicated some weak inhibition in the 500-1500 m layer, though ample
    elevated instability is noted. Additional heating increasing ascent
    through the afternoon should largely mitigate inhibition.

    Vertical shear will remain somewhat marginal, around 25-35 kt, but
    sufficient for at least transient/short-lived strong/organized
    updrafts. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds will
    be the main hazards with isolated thunderstorm activity through
    23-00z. Low-level winds are fairly weak, especially through 1 km.
    However, some favorable curvature to low-level hodograph (per 17z
    MFL RAOB and region radar VWPs) and effective SRH around 100 m2/s2
    amid a very moist low-level airmass could support a brief/weak
    spin-up near the southeast coast where better low-level convergence
    is noted. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain marginal
    and sporadic, and a watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/06/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Fp9hIuDXJuj31AZKr2veo631HQL7CCQ-JpVwjruzeEJ2g75eKzsRfU1CtV-o5STVJCIC-KhU= SSqQMfaQjCj3Gyqqig$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 25668008 25488016 25468029 25418060 25498093 25728141
    26038180 26558182 27568158 28288116 28448073 28258039
    28078021 27597998 26317984 25668008=20


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