• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0190

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 26 21:03:31 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262103
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262103=20
    KSZ000-262300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0190
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

    Areas affected...Southwest/Central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 262103Z - 262300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind
    gusts is expected to develop over the next few hours across
    southwest KS. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for
    portion of the region.

    DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper
    70s across southwest KS, while dewpoints currently remain in the
    upper 30s. Low-level moisture advection is expected to persist for
    at least the next few hours ahead of the strong shortwave trough
    moving out the southern High Plains. Even so, dewpoints will likely
    only reach the upper 40s before the surface low associated with the
    shortwave moves through.=20

    Despite modest thermodynamics, very strong large-scale forcing for
    ascent augmented by mesoscale ascent near the deepening surface low
    is still expected to result enough lift to overcome any convective
    inhibition. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with robust wind
    fields contributing to the potential for fast-storm motion and
    strong wind gusts. Given this potential for strong wind gusts, a
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for portion of the
    region.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9iPODNV45lTO4Hb9SWBNNXfNWokXqZhpa9ju7bgwqzdvPJAEPWyk1Z7EV-VuVwXO2_hyXI4Ra= cwdZk-lTaX80Xol5gg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37450197 37890174 38490057 38899957 38979866 38389844
    37949876 37460041 37380115 37450197=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Mar 5 10:07:53 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 051007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051007=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0190
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0407 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

    Areas affected...eastern Texas into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051007Z - 051230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms will persist this morning from eastern
    Texas into western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and western
    Louisiana. Sporadic severe hail will remain possible with the
    stronger cells, but coverage and severity does not warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints is in place
    over the region, ahead of a surface trough extending from
    south-central MO across southeast OK and into northern TX. Although
    low-level winds and surface convergence are relatively weak, the
    influence of a midlevel shortwave is resulting in sufficient lift to
    support development.

    Various clusters of cells are ongoing from eastern TX into AR, with
    weaker development even farther north. However, the greatest threat
    of hail over 1.00" diameter over the next several hours should be
    near the instability axis from southeast OK and the Arklatex
    southward, where MUCAPE is over 2000 J/kg.

    Lack of deep-layer shear is likely minimizing the severe risk to an
    extent, with 500 mb winds only around 25 kt where the storms are
    ongoing. Stronger speeds do exist farther south along the TX Coast
    and toward southern LA, currently removed from the zone of ascent.
    As such, the threat of sporadic, short-lived hail cores is forecast
    to persist through the morning, shifting slowly east with the
    midlevel wave. Cells over southern areas may experience a more
    favorable shear environment, and an isolated hail report to around
    1.75" cannot be ruled out.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/05/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ScbcXDu7jHnD9OpPXjS5FoultBcsm3ZLK1dlcmU_pcfDCI702oGCD9Jdyf8JEPADCquq4vQn= jM2_Th0rPm9DRISjbk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 30909291 30569347 30529417 30619483 30849531 31259564
    32139611 32739625 33569634 34129603 34589553 34759487
    34709408 34429339 34049305 32519273 32069262 31409273
    30909291=20


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