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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0188

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Feb 24 18:06:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 241806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241805=20
    CAZ000-242200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0188
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1205 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

    Areas affected...Interior Santa Barbra County Interior
    Mountains...Los Angeles County Mountains...and Ventura County
    Mountains

    Concerning...Blizzard=20

    Valid 241805Z - 242200Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates exceeding 2 in/hr possible
    through the afternoon and evening. Blizzard conditions possible at
    times with near zero visibility.

    DISCUSSION...A low currently located off the coast of California
    continues to bring increasing mid-level moisture inland across
    Southern California across the axis of a strong 40 kt low-level jet.
    As the upper-level low advances eastward through the afternoon and
    evening, colder air will overspread the region with lapse rates
    steepening to around 6-6.5 C/km ahead of the frontal band. With
    destabilization and increasing frontal forcing, expect an increase
    in snowfall rates across the Santa Barbra Interior Mountains, Los
    Angeles County, and Ventura County Mountains through the afternoon
    and evening, with snowfall rates exceeding 2"/hr across the mountain
    passes. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts 55-70 mph (locally
    higher) will allow for blowing snow and reduced visibility. Blizzard
    conditions will be possible, with near white-out conditions and
    dangerous travel likely.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 02/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9eEYsRs1NLM58pX1IAMsGMclxVFcMY4QFV6-qlaSRMBF_elJbffAw1jB9Wew6JFxzqpwELfdq= ruDm4BzQtp36OiXDnA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX...

    LAT...LON 34881993 35031972 34971950 34931920 34811878 34501791
    34491744 34431730 34121743 34071764 34181805 34321832
    34481873 34491916 34541951 34721985 34881993=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 4 17:34:50 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 041734
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041734=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-041930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0188
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

    Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041734Z - 041930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
    through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter)
    and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in
    coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into
    much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F
    beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally
    around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear
    magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for
    supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak
    rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few
    instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph).

    Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for
    low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved
    (albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds
    and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit
    tornado potential.=20

    Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger, well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NZm5erOpJG_gA5oxmRDoADMzl4LbI9k1P29HayGcbEXEa6UEB_5V-gihCkCfqfPas43JcEZF= GVT7n71HslH1WaeW1M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083
    29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356
    31109424 31599450=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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