• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0179

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Feb 22 20:27:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 222027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222027=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-222230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0179
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

    Areas affected...southeast MO into central/southern IL into far
    western IN

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...

    Valid 222027Z - 222230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible
    across tornado watch 41.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection has shown some better
    organization and modest intensification over the past 30-45 minutes, particularly as the line moves into east-central IL. Somewhat better
    heating and dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 F is likely
    responsible for convection become more surface-based compared to
    earlier in storm-scale evolution. A couple of measured severe gusts
    were noted just north of St. Louis, and damaging wind potential will
    continue across the remain of tornado watch 41.=20

    Some veering of low-level winds is noted in surface observations
    across southern IL. However, some southeasterly low-level winds are
    still noted closer to central IL nearer to the warm front and a weak
    surface low/triple point. Given the magnitude of low-level shear, a
    locally greater chance of a brief tornado may exist between the I-70
    and I-64 corridors.=20

    Severe potential should wane with eastward extent into portions of
    western KY and IN and a downstream watch is not currently
    anticipated.

    ..Leitman.. 02/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-W6pPh0OhuqdlXQb9i0UQN1ob9WVhfgfyJ32NfWZOnUH_qUOOobzuvYxzSEliGJfcgsGr6qRz= FaDlxDeclXpBr4Xxgg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39869002 40478726 39078715 37648821 37008938 37118989
    37319035 38189037 39649018 39869002=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Feb 28 22:47:21 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 282247
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282246=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-290015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0179
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast GA into the Carolina Piedmont region and
    far southern VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 282246Z - 290015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts will remain possible into
    early evening before the threat diminishes.

    DISCUSSION...A eastward-moving band of convection, which earlier
    produced isolated measured severe gusts across parts of north GA and
    Upstate SC, has shown some signs of weakening over the last hour,
    with diminishing lightning activity. Downstream instability is very
    limited due to poor midlevel lapse rates, but seasonably strong
    heating/mixing occurred over the Carolina Piedmont region this
    afternoon. The combination of relatively steep low-level lapse rates
    and moderate low-level flow will continue to support a threat of
    localized strong/damaging gusts into early evening, before a more
    definitive weakening trend occurs tonight.

    ..Dean/Edwards.. 02/28/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5tLXfLgc4bxTb7jZ7jZhz6-Vta8oy3VaVWE5yCd_-JwmAXXuceNKrJqMmoh_LYBM9Kfi99J8D= fxSTxAjvSjtdMC2B9M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33678277 33758266 34958053 35338023 35488030 35598047
    35668052 36058004 36917881 37077829 36997785 36587790
    36087815 35487854 34807915 34208013 33758097 33158230
    33328313 33678277=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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