ACUS11 KWNS 221804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221804=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern MO and southwestern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 221804Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts along with a brief tornado or two are
possible across parts of eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois.
A weather watch is expected in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is located near the
Missouri River with a surface cyclone located near Kansas City.
Strong low-level southerly flow has resulted in dewpoints near 60F
across southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois. The VWP from
KLSX shows strong deep-layer shear (~60-70 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear)
and strong low-level flow, with 50 kts around 1 km ARL.
Additionally, short-term RAP forecast soundings show relatively weak
buoyancy, though hodographs are expected to become more curved with
time. In this environment, a line of convection is ongoing west of
the St. Louis area. Given strong low-level wind fields, expect a few
damaging gusts along with a tornado or two. A watch is expected
within the next hour.

..Supinie/Guyer.. 02/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PBJLWIP08gblCLwCZ_WkGg9ev0vu-kc09IzreoV_DtMqhvNYAR_42c29ngxGuUTo0-kx5TDM= 1Zs286o4doZIv3pv78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 39569117 39919045 40088976 40098926 39698868 39088862
38538865 38108883 37798914 37468949 37298989 37259055
37409135 37779155 38589165 39139145 39569117=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 281815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281815=20
WAZ000-ORZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Areas affected...the northern and central Cascades in Washington and
far northern Oregon.

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 281815Z - 282145Z

SUMMARY...2 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates are likely above 4000
feet this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A plume of deep moisture (PWAT of 0.81" on the UIL 12Z
RAOB) continues to be transported into the Pacific Northwest by
strong low to mid-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-level
trough. Current snowfall levels are observed around 4000 feet which
should stay consistent through the afternoon. The 12Z UIL RAOB
sampled a 50 knot southwesterly low-level jet centered around 775mb.
RAP forecast soundings show winds veering slightly and increasing to
60 to 65 knots around 20-22Z. This should represent a maximum in
orographic ascent and snowfall rates during the afternoon. Snowfall
rates of 3 inches per hour are likely during that period with
locally higher rates, particularly at higher elevations. Heavy
snowfall rates will persist into the late afternoon before waning
after 00Z as low-level flow starts to weaken and PWAT values
decrease.

..Bentley.. 02/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ZRGj4xzcCr1XktUK_5fHkaBBCNfP2e418dMHHUwVSF1CAiHnIt2kkYr007UI2ncm6eNy4OhG= p5C_0Q6oKdUVawQb1Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON 46932225 47132198 47342189 47562176 47892181 48072193
48442220 48552228 48822230 48942228 49022227 49072095
48412119 47852119 47302129 45842145 45472147 45132168
44912210 44862234 45102240 45292221 45542221 45682230
45942245 46052258 46202263 46402255 46542248 46672251
46762252 46862242 46932225=20


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