ACUS11 KWNS 161918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161917=20
ALZ000-162045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of western and central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 161917Z - 162045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will likely increase through the
afternoon into this evening with supercells moving out of eastern
MS. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed by 20z.

DISCUSSION...As of 1910 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing across portions of central and southeastern
MS, into portions of western AL. Additional warm-sector storms were
forming along the MS/AL border region. Gradual intensification in
lightning has been noted over the past couple of hours, suggesting a
slow increase in severe potential. While storms have been slow to
organize thus far, persistent mid-level mesocyclones within a moist,
unstable and strongly sheared environment (100-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH)
continue to suggest the possibility of tornadoes with supercell
structures. Damaging wind gusts may also become a threat given the
clustered nature of the current storms. With the potential for
supercells to persist, and additional storms to develop, within the
strongly sheared warm sector, a new Tornado Watch will be needed
across parts of AL this afternoon.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5y32dEwv-vDWNU0vbRfBeTOLpCqSvZhepX9TCSDQ8SCONXKaY4HV1y1cKbidXzcFRLBurKh0h= LIT7NfARwHOh-184X8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON 32628836 33748824 34288808 34338641 34228597 33838581
33448596 33078613 32348660 31228755 31218841 31918842
32628836=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 272348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272347=20
INZ000-ILZ000-280115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Areas affected...parts of central and southern Illinois into Western
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 272347Z - 280115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storm development along the dryline is possible
early this evening. Experimental WOFS guidance and environmental
analysis suggest conditional severe potential if supercells are able
to develop.

DISCUSSION...As of 2230 UTC, regional satellite data showed towering altocumulus deepening across parts of central IL. Located along the
dryline ahead of a subtle shortwave trough, multiple attempts at CI
appear to be underway. The environment downstream of the dryline is conditionally favorable for deep convection, with dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s F and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Considerable MLCINH (-100 J/kg from
mesoanalysis) remains in place, but if deep convection can initiate,
50+ kt of effective shear would favor storm organization with a
supercellular mode.

Hi-res and experimental forecast guidance has shown isolated storm
development early this evening over several prior runs. Should this
occur, the environment over eastern IL and western IN is favorable
for supercells capable of all severe hazards. ESRH of 300-400 m2/s2,
observed from area VWPs, may also support a risk for a strong
tornado. While the risk remains very uncertain, given dry air
entertainment and the loss of diurnal heating along the dryline,
observational trends are being monitored for a possible weather
watch. Storm development is much more likely later this evening as
the cold front and stronger forcing for ascent approach from the
west after 03z.

..Lyons/Edwards.. 02/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6f7WWUaedswb-wJVDeUv-nApE2RdOfm4NDfNNYDuQ3CmQgJ8MLYk-UGVdaEc9LLWiLq7_guY6= 6e8jeUy2aPK5YfSJlQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 37958969 37818925 38028870 38298808 38718704 39138667
39608666 39778676 39958695 40108734 40118805 40038834
39808890 39598926 39298952 38418970 37958969=20


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