• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0160

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Feb 16 13:54:36 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 161354
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161354=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-161600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0160
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0754 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of LA...western MS...and extreme
    southeastern AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161354Z - 161600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail should
    gradually increase this morning. Trends are being monitored for
    possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal convection has gradually increased over the
    past hour across parts of southern LA. The 12Z observed sounding
    from LCH indicates that minimal convective inhibition remains across
    this area, with around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE present. Deep-layer
    shear of 50+ kt will easily support organized thunderstorms. This
    region will remain on the southern fringe of appreciable large-scale
    ascent associated with an upper trough/low over the southern/central
    Plains. But, some forcing for ascent attendant to a 30-35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is present over the warm sector.
    It remains unclear whether the ongoing convection will appreciably
    strengthen over the next 1-2 hours given weak forcing. Still, there
    appears to be some chance that the ongoing activity could develop
    into supercells and pose a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and
    some hail this morning. While not immediately likely, watch issuance
    before 16Z (10 AM CST) is possible, and will be highly dependent on observational trends.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 02/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LNdxLW94AdO0BGLzzN1DwqoResE6tWWCF463N5EoZQ3m850nWB-aW59wSbm3vypwA8h6GseG= BIX48xiS_Dy14r3m6I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 30329206 30729289 31229260 31569236 33149207 33289183
    33289111 33029058 32369048 31009076 30339137 30329206=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Feb 27 14:46:09 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 271446
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271445=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-271845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0160
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0845 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

    Areas affected...Northwest to north-central MN and southeast ND

    Concerning...Blizzard=20

    Valid 271445Z - 271845Z

    SUMMARY...A band of persistent heavy snow with 1-2 inch/hour rates
    will shift northeast across northwest and north-central Minnesota
    into northwest Ontario. Near-blizzard to blizzard conditions should
    continue in its wake where light to moderate snow occurs, mainly
    across the Red River Valley.

    DISCUSSION...Based on observed snow reports and imagery, a band of
    heavy snow is ongoing from the Fargo-Moorhead vicinity northeastward
    across northwest MN. This heavy snow band aligns well with 700-mb
    frontogenesis and is expected to shift northeast across
    north-central MN into northwest Ontario through midday. Meanwhile,
    strong to severe gradient winds (gust to 51 kts measured at KFAR)
    near and to the backside of this heavy snow band has yielded several
    obs with visibility of a half-mile or less. The bulk of the tighter
    surface pressure gradient and low-level flow should generally shift
    east into the afternoon, suggesting the more persistent
    near-blizzard to blizzard conditions should be favored over the Red
    River Valley and parts of northwest MN.

    ..Grams.. 02/27/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5qOvesLPxkvx1nv8iLfxLGP9pE-sS6Z1RkQ4IaYtA33QxpotKJBLKFH5STN57uvpYIgoYi4Sy= uDubN18kXqe1mcf2Hk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46569792 47439686 48389538 48769471 48999362 48829246
    48129275 46499545 45939613 45749653 45689715 45789757
    46079791 46569792=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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