ACUS11 KWNS 160827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160826=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-161000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of north-central AR into
south-central/southeastern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...36...

Valid 160826Z - 161000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35, 36
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for hail, damaging winds, and a tornado
should continue for the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells embedded within a broken
convective line are ongoing across north-central AR as of 0825Z.
This activity is occurring within a strongly sheared low-level
environment associated with a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet.
Effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 will continue to support updraft
rotation and a near-term tornado threat centered over north-central
AR. This convection will likely remain surface based or nearly so
with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg present along/east of a front. Strong
effective bulk shear of 45-55+ kt related to the southern fringe of
a pronounced mid-level jet over the southern/central Plains also
exists over the warm sector. An isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds will continue with the ongoing broken line of
thunderstorms. Convection should becoming increasingly elevated with
northward extent in south-central MO, but it may still pose some
hail threat.

..Gleason.. 02/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_0LANxdQVszp8uwcbVJ4T8AcQv1xHix8cKfH4JC57WMWbJ_pYjv-6FGkH5-dyRRHoisYgpgQt= JtxfLRKEeUEI9wjuwU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 35549314 35999285 36619241 36949191 37399147 37929146
37969078 37839034 37159045 36799072 36519142 35949176
35419246 35259301 35549314=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 231725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231725=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-232030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Areas affected...northern Florida into southeast Georgia and
southern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231725Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convective coverage is possible over
the next several hours, and localized strong gusts may occur.

DISCUSSION...A strong upper trough with cooling aloft continues to
rapidly overspread the region, with a cold front now extending from
central SC into the FL Panhandle. A narrow plume of warming
temperatures and dewpoints to around 60 F extend from the FL
Panhandle across southeast GA and toward southern SC, and is
contributing to up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE.

Modified soundings from the area depict generally shallow storm
potential, however, if cooling aloft can remove the midlevel warm
layer prior to the cold front moving offshore, a brief period may
exist for deeper convection. Given the strong deep-layer wind
fields, but generally weak instability, localized wind damage would
appear to be the main concern.

..Jewell/Hart.. 02/23/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6G4K6f4bxFtNBdZXAyWk_qTxapShfSAwPwmPpILaDdQtKgZkVz-jJyFP3jGV46W2ScaepPBvm= 7-G7oFZL_Oy0yFNT3Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30248148 30138246 30128256 30228292 30418318 30708341
31018342 31328332 31568289 31838239 32588165 33718090
33568021 33157970 32727976 32398033 32008076 31588109
31028134 30668137 30248148=20


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