ACUS11 KWNS 160451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160450=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana...eastern
Arkansas...southwestern Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

Valid 160450Z - 160645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
tornadoes may peak during the Midnight-3 AM CST time frame.

DISCUSSION...As the center of a modest surface cyclone migrates from
near McAlester, OK toward the Fayetteville/Harrison, AR vicinity
through 06-08Z, flow around 850 mb is forecast to continue
increasing in excess of 40 kts in a broadening swath centered across
Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Within this regime,
deeper low-level moisture appears likely to focus along a confluence
zone well ahead of the main surface front trailing the cyclone,
across northeastern Louisiana toward areas near/northwest of
Memphis.

Convection continues to gradually deepen along this corridor, with thunderstorms initiating as mid-level inhibition is overcome with
large-scale ascent. Although, even in the warmer and more moist
boundary-layer across this region, weak/stable near-surface lapse
rates could still mitigate the severe weather threat somewhat,
low-level hodographs may become most conducive to the risk for
tornadoes, before trending more linear with the approach of the
front later tonight.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9y_OgmCCeDZa5c0MXlGDcSiQIwJQZbQ7Ef5ShAYT083Z92DNOQXt8J9LTTnmICnpsFypL--xw= KrfbCvJaNkKGbHS5I8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32969296 35219117 35858959 34858899 32909095 32249253
32969296=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 160518
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160517=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana...eastern
Arkansas...southwestern Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

Valid 160517Z - 160715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
tornadoes may peak during the Midnight-3 AM CST time frame.

DISCUSSION...As the center of a modest surface cyclone migrates from
near McAlester, OK toward the Fayetteville/Harrison, AR vicinity
through 06-08Z, flow around 850 mb is forecast to continue
increasing in excess of 40 kts in a broadening swath centered across
Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Within this regime,
deeper low-level moisture appears likely to focus along a confluence
zone well ahead of the main surface front trailing the cyclone,
across northeastern Louisiana toward areas near/northwest of
Memphis.

Convection continues to gradually deepen along this corridor, with thunderstorms initiating as mid-level inhibition is overcome with
large-scale ascent. Although, even in the warmer and more moist
boundary-layer across this region, weak/stable near-surface lapse
rates could still mitigate the severe weather threat somewhat,
low-level hodographs may become most conducive to the risk for
tornadoes, before trending more linear with the approach of the
front later tonight.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6T-5mWjuAPMNe1gQO0RjitwH4zNC0PM0bwyIeov9TvuW_FFP6cnVAGDLWduF-D-jOBKgWa792= XYaKNJnEN_hjk7OF0E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32969296 35219117 35858959 34858899 32909095 32249253
32969296=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 192052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192051=20
CAZ000-192315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024

Areas affected...portions of central into northern California

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192051Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of semi-discrete, low-topped supercells may form
later this afternoon, accompanied by a brief tornado or marginally
severe hail/wind risk. A WW issuance appears unlikely given the
brief, localized nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface
low continue to promote strong flow fields over central into
northern CA as they linger just offshore. Some clearing of clouds
and precipitation over portions of the Sacramento Valley have
allowed surface temperatures to reach the lower to mid 60s F in
spots. While 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 20Z mesoanalysis)
overspread the low to mid 60s F temperatures, the diurnal heating
has also allowed for the mixing of the low-level moisture, with
surface dewpoints only as high as 50 F in spots. These lower
dewpoints support thin SBCAPE profiles (no more than 500 J/kg in
most spots). While the DAX and BBX VADs show relatively large,
curved hodographs (300+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH), RAP forecast soundings
suggest that such low dewpoints do not sufficiently destabilize the
boundary layer for optimal ingestion of the available SRH. While
low-topped storms (perhaps supercells) may develop later today with
a marginally severe hail/wind threat, the tornado risk is a bit more
uncertain. Nonetheless, if a robust, discrete low-topped supercell
manages to develop, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.=20

Coverage of robust updrafts over the Sacramento Valley remains
uncertain, and any severe threat that can materialize should be
brief and very localized. As such, a WW issuance does not appear
likely at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 02/19/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-P-ARHzV2v9LcbxgcIWzj1dbg0CM9YMaTWO892AX5lZLv-v01OWO0-qrIfDNoPBjkTxsMUOCA= 3jgfxM3KtKP9hi9kRY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...STO...

LAT...LON 37722118 38152156 38642204 39472230 39902239 40122223
40132198 39742164 39032119 38592095 38092066 37822069
37692082 37622090 37722118=20


=3D =3D =3D
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