• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0153

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Feb 16 03:22:05 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 160321
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160321=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0153
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0921 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

    Valid 160321Z - 160415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues this evening. Downstream watch
    issuance likely needed.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to advance
    northeastward this evening across eastern Oklahoma. A few more
    discrete cells have been able to develop ahead of the main line
    producing severe hail. Recently, 1 inch hail was reported near Ada,
    Oklahoma. The risk of severe hail and gusty winds will continue to
    be favored, especially within storms that can maintain discrete
    modes within the warm sector. Boundary layer conditions continue to
    be unfavorably dry with dew points in the mid 50s across much of
    eastern Oklahoma. Recent surface objective analysis indicates that
    the capping inversion across far southeastern OK/TX/AR may be
    eroding in the last few hours within a region of 1000-1500 J/kg of
    SBCAPE. Surface observations show 60 F dew points within the
    Arklatex vicinity extending as far northward as McCurtain County
    Oklahoma. A tornado or two will be possible with discrete modes/line
    mergers occur within the corridor of better low-level moisture,
    especially as shear profiles are further enhanced with increasing
    850 mb flow over the next couple of hours. A downstream watch will
    likely be needed within the hour.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_B7bqhmdhLfwJy5vMcdXRYjZiUFEKDumAqKwHmiwthoYv_XlKvUgXh7PVtHVjnWH5wb7QY8jV= tAySQ5trK7hUeSSLzQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33869803 34369764 34669705 34889669 34939650 35009591
    35249532 35549496 35909461 36339447 36359417 36109390
    35869369 35469353 35109343 34549362 34339378 34159391
    34079404 34009506 33899568 33839660 33769700 33629779
    33869803=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 18 23:02:18 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 182302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182301=20
    NYZ000-190300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0153
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

    Areas affected...Northern New York

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 182301Z - 190300Z

    SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls will be possible in the coming hours
    as a cold front approaches northern New York.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites and surface
    observations show a persistent snow band moving east across
    southeast Ontario. This band is primarily being driven by ascent
    along a cold front - likely through a shallow layer from the surface
    to around 700 mb where lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km based
    on recent RAP mesoanalyses and forecast soundings. The snow
    band/cold front is expected to continue to push east into upstate NY
    within the next few hours. The combination of persistent frontal
    ascent, steep low-level lapse rates, and 25-30 mph wind gusts (which
    have been observed across southeast Ontario with the passage of the
    band/front) suggests snow squall conditions will be possible. Snow
    squall potential will likely be greatest along the eastern shores of
    Lake Ontario with diminishing confidence in snow squall potential
    with east/southeastern extent as low-level lapse rates begin to
    diminish due to the onset of nocturnal cooling.

    ..Moore.. 02/18/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5aplXT2Z5Rwd0yjg-hVy-aoweoZVovnxe1VGYS3v3KBo2_VaQC7thMAcIap0q7EcMPFwD69NT= -HESLKb4ojiWSp6nJo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42747618 42677673 42737739 43037864 43187890 43357895
    43527872 43507764 43587718 43747689 44307641 44787553
    44977489 44977457 44757421 44577407 44287405 43117527
    42887565 42747618=20


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