ACUS11 KWNS 141940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141940=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-142145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
Areas affected...Central and eastern Kansas into portions of
southeastern Nebraska...northwest Missouri and far southwestern Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 141940Z - 142145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped thunderstorm development is expected
in the next 1 to 2 hours across portions of central Kansas. Damaging
wind gusts, a brief tornado or two and small hail will be possible
with any sustained supercells. Conditions will be monitored but a
weather watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, afternoon moisture-channel imagery
showed a mature upper low centered over southwestern KS. At the
surface, strong southerly flow was noted east of a subtle
dryline/surface trough southeast of sub 990 mb surface low. Over the
last several hours, a mid-level dry slot has allowed for robust
diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s F. While not especially
moist, mid-level temperatures of -25 C and steep 0-3 km lapse rates
were supporting low-level MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. Gradual
deepening of a cumulus field has been noted suggesting residual
inhibition is quickly diminishing.
Continued heating, low-level convergence and dynamic ascent from the
passing upper-level low should allow for isolated storm development
beneath the cold core in the next couple of hours. Area RAP
soundings show elongated low-level hodographs and adequate buoyancy
(500-600 J/kg MLCAPE) to potentially support an isolated low-topped
supercell from central KS northeastward toward southeastern NE,
northwestern MO, and far southwestern IA. Steep lapse rates below 3
km, along with strong gradient winds and the modest surface moisture
may support a risk for a few damaging gusts. A brief tornado or two
along with isolated small hail may also be possible given 0-1 km
shear in excess of 20 kt. Hi-res guidance suggests the localized
severe threat may continue northeastward as the airmass rapidly
modifies over the next few hours. Conditions will be monitored, but
uncertainty on storm coverage and severity suggests the potential
for a weather watch is low.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/14/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5otoP_7O1nefCEOKPM2_xWOmIUpbpvqCEnbhQbv0DGyRYtxlkc2_rV6-SN7DY98bw88KqJEaC= 5eD3AZoBK3FbgHCBVk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39719453 38779506 38379523 37909548 37639564 37389593
37259636 37249670 37409690 37679712 37979735 38519763
38909769 40059723 40589643 40929558 40789466 40369428
39719453=20
=3D =3D =3D
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