• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0147

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Feb 14 19:40:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 141940
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141940=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-142145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0147
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

    Areas affected...Central and eastern Kansas into portions of
    southeastern Nebraska...northwest Missouri and far southwestern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141940Z - 142145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped thunderstorm development is expected
    in the next 1 to 2 hours across portions of central Kansas. Damaging
    wind gusts, a brief tornado or two and small hail will be possible
    with any sustained supercells. Conditions will be monitored but a
    weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, afternoon moisture-channel imagery
    showed a mature upper low centered over southwestern KS. At the
    surface, strong southerly flow was noted east of a subtle
    dryline/surface trough southeast of sub 990 mb surface low. Over the
    last several hours, a mid-level dry slot has allowed for robust
    diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass characterized
    by surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s F. While not especially
    moist, mid-level temperatures of -25 C and steep 0-3 km lapse rates
    were supporting low-level MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. Gradual
    deepening of a cumulus field has been noted suggesting residual
    inhibition is quickly diminishing.

    Continued heating, low-level convergence and dynamic ascent from the
    passing upper-level low should allow for isolated storm development
    beneath the cold core in the next couple of hours. Area RAP
    soundings show elongated low-level hodographs and adequate buoyancy
    (500-600 J/kg MLCAPE) to potentially support an isolated low-topped
    supercell from central KS northeastward toward southeastern NE,
    northwestern MO, and far southwestern IA. Steep lapse rates below 3
    km, along with strong gradient winds and the modest surface moisture
    may support a risk for a few damaging gusts. A brief tornado or two
    along with isolated small hail may also be possible given 0-1 km
    shear in excess of 20 kt. Hi-res guidance suggests the localized
    severe threat may continue northeastward as the airmass rapidly
    modifies over the next few hours. Conditions will be monitored, but
    uncertainty on storm coverage and severity suggests the potential
    for a weather watch is low.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5otoP_7O1nefCEOKPM2_xWOmIUpbpvqCEnbhQbv0DGyRYtxlkc2_rV6-SN7DY98bw88KqJEaC= 5eD3AZoBK3FbgHCBVk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39719453 38779506 38379523 37909548 37639564 37389593
    37259636 37249670 37409690 37679712 37979735 38519763
    38909769 40059723 40589643 40929558 40789466 40369428
    39719453=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Feb 16 21:04:59 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 162104
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162104=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0147
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

    Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois into central and
    southern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...extreme northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 162104Z - 170100Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue over the next several hours. At
    least 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are expected, accompanied by
    periods of reduced visibility.

    DISCUSSION...Heavy snow has been on the increase in terms of
    coverage and intensity over the last few hours as surface cold air
    advection along/just north of the OH River is overspread by
    continued warm-air/moisture advection aloft. Within a broader zonal
    band of snow, the heaviest rates (i.e. 1+ inch/hr) should occur near
    the 700 mb frontogenesis axis, where ascent within the dendritic
    growth zone should be greatest. The heavier snow, along with reduced visibility, should progress east-southeastward this afternoon into
    the evening hours (per 12Z HREF calibrated guidance).

    ..Squitieri.. 02/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4FI_cSs7v7rD6lvVEsOE3TBW8A48yDikxD5yeXgBLRudahkCG2yI6SUJOMXocD8NWjyKMloiK= QaSgC3rYrzhuTPXIuU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39958370 39658349 39108370 38688435 38348555 38148742
    38088900 38238993 38459028 38699026 38759022 39048946
    39558723 39898549 40048470 39998389 39958370=20


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