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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0144

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Feb 10 19:22:52 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 101922
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101922=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-102045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0144
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

    Areas affected...Northern FL peninsula and far southeastern GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101922Z - 102045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of strong storms has moved onshore to the northern
    Florida peninsula, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across
    northern Florida and far southeastern Georgia. While a few damaging
    gusts are possible, a weather watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery indicate that a line of stronger storms
    has moved onshore, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across
    far southeast Georgia and north Florida. These cells are in an
    environment characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (30-35 kts of effective bulk
    shear), per mesoanalysis and RAP profiles. The low-level wind shear
    is relatively poor, with less than 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. As the
    afternoon progresses, expect some clustering and upscale growth
    before storms move offshore. Given the poor low-level shear and some
    modestly dry air in the 850-700 mb layer, these clusters may produce
    a few damaging gusts. Trends will be monitored, but a weather watch
    is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Supinie/Thompson.. 02/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PlqF4rUUhnqqsGB5_aCBB1sZMrvYM8_sKiEuNRz_yFRwTcLT3Dte0MnY8vzNqWhyq0IuJIQy= v61VUUylNiaBWaisYI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29628146 29398209 29308282 29468335 29868368 30248346
    30638286 30898231 31038208 31128157 30998143 30708134
    30108124 29628146=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Feb 15 23:14:19 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 152314
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152313=20
    VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-160315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0144
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0513 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

    Areas affected...2 Eastern New York

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 152313Z - 160315Z

    SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow across central New York
    will likely spread east into eastern New York over the next few
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a fairly well organized snow
    band has become established over central NY state based on composite reflectivity and water-vapor trends. Although recent CAMs have
    depicted the evolution of this band, the overall intensity appears
    to be stronger than initially suggested by CAM output when compared
    to observed visibility reductions (1/2 to 1/4 mile from Syracuse to
    Utica, NY) and regional web cams. Pockets of snowfall rates
    approaching 1 inch/hour appear probable within the band based on
    these observations, and should persist for the next 1-3 hours as the
    band spreads across eastern NY. After around 02 UTC, the persistence
    and intensity of this band becomes less certain as frontogenesis
    within the 850-700 mb layer abates. However, persistent ascent
    within the left-exit region of an approaching mid-level jet
    overlapped with a broad warm frontal zone may allow for pockets of
    moderate to heavy snowfall rates to persist after 02 UTC into the
    New England region.

    ..Moore.. 02/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!862nJajR4kbUT6pdvse3uyT9w4VxIASVwxpl8XZin1EHJppRIQV2DsIoobUuJFrjk7aKT6gXR= hDYL4SxB4lDYkTc02Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42117490 43647564 43897600 44147601 44447582 44987489
    44997380 44977349 44797330 44447328 42937323 42517335
    42177345 41887365 41647369 41527391 41427418 41477448
    41617462 41917477 42117490=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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