ACUS11 KWNS 090209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090208=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southwest into south-central MS and
southeast LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 090208Z - 090345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and a couple mesovortex
tornadoes should increase during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KPOE shows an organizing north-south-oriented line segment tracking east-northeastward at
around 50 mph over far southwest MS into southeast LA. Lower/middle
60s dewpoints should continue to yield surface-based inflow for this
line, while 50+ kt of midlevel flow oriented oblique to the
leading-edge gust front should favor a continued organized/linear
mode. Additional upscale growth/storm mergers downstream along with
a strengthening pre-frontal low-level jet should support an
increasing risk of damaging gusts. 50-70 mph gusts (some locally
higher) are possible with any bowing/forward-propagating segments in
the line. In addition, favorably curved low-level hodographs (per
DGX VWP data) could also support a couple mesovortex tornadoes --
especially in parts of the line that become oriented more SSE-NNW.

..Weinman.. 02/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!40GWIaFprRVP7SJlxggtJbY-NLOYhMi_bxfNts6GVBJt5Oj78eKy6Yu9xaZjrC_cBWpnJ7vmX= 8yZk3muOXwlUidgWUs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31089139 31749127 32119113 32499075 32589020 32428985
32068975 31039008 30519050 30489112 30709137 31089139=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 121647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121647=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-121745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into far southwest GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 24...

Valid 121647Z - 121745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues.

SUMMARY...A limited severe threat with low probabilities for a brief tornado/locally strong gusts should persist with a thunderstorm line
moving east across the Florida Panhandle and far southwest Georgia.

DISCUSSION...A short-line segment is ongoing from extreme southwest
GA to the central FL Panhandle coast. The warm-moist sector ahead of
this line is quite confined with only about a county-wide band of
upper 60s surface dew points. Modified 12Z TLH sounding suggests
this richer moisture is necessary for appreciable surface-based
instability, and will remain the main mitigating factor to the
severe threat. Latest CAM guidance has minimal indications for
appreciable strengthening of this line and given the observational
trends, additional watch issuance seems unlikely. Surface wind gusts
still seem likely to peak in the 45-60 mph range given semi-parallel
deep-layer flow to the orientation of the line and peak measured
gust during the past hour of 45 mph at KMAI.

..Grams.. 02/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7D4hH0OO0-a8Z4dnE6z_LaHaU_VPsEbXs0snzO5NvlczGhLDZmDAfJpIP6-VMZ7K9XJ6r6kVB= WACZ-0fnbXuiRWOFQs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 30958470 31128436 30978392 30888364 30728358 30418364
30148383 29908418 29668491 29588521 29618528 30958470=20


=3D =3D =3D
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